A Comparison Between WarnGen System and Probabilistic Hazard Information System for Severe Weather Forecasting
A Comparison Between WarnGen System and Probabilistic Hazard Information System for Severe Weather Forecasting
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灾害性天气预报WarnGen系统与概率灾害信息系统的比较
DOI：
10.1177/1541931215591387
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Lans P. Rothfusz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chen Ling;Lesheng Hua;C. Karstens;G. Stumpf;Travis M. Smith;K. M. Kuhlman;Lans P. Rothfusz
为了加强国家对恶劣天气的准备，设计有效的方法来传达恶劣天气信息是很重要的。这项研究报告了在2014年危险天气试验台（HWT）中进行的一项实验，比较了确定性恶劣天气预警系统WarnGen和原型概率危险信息（PHI）系统。六个国家气象局（NWS）预报员使用这两个系统来预报严重的冰雹事件。经过最少的培训，PHI系统获得了与WarnGen系统相似的系统可用性和天气状况感知等级。与此同时，PHI系统导致预报员的时间压力显着减少，所有预报员更喜欢原型PHI系统的WarnGen系统。天气预报员认为，PHI系统使他们能够向公众传达更丰富和更好的天气信息，从而提高整体服务水平。
To increase the nation’s preparedness for severe weather, it is important to design effective ways to communicate severe weather information. This study reports an experiment conducted in the 2014 Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) comparing the deterministic severe weather warning system WarnGen, and a prototype Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) system. Six National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters used both systems to forecast severe hail events. With minimal training, the PHI system received similar levels of system usability and weather situation awareness rating as the WarnGen system. Meanwhile, the PHI system resulted in significantly less temporal stress for the forecaster and all forecasters preferred the prototype PHI system to the WarnGen system. Forecasters believed the PHI system allowed them to convey richer and better weather information to the public, which could result in better service overall.