Management of Uncertainty: Theory and Application in the Design of Systems and Organizations
Management of Uncertainty: Theory and Application in the Design of Systems and Organizations
复制标题
不确定性管理：系统和组织设计中的理论与应用
DOI：
10.1007/978-1-84882-373-0
复制
发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
9.6
通讯作者：
G. Grote
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Grote
处理来自内部流程和环境的不确定性是组织和系统设计的核心问题。不确定性管理研究了接受技术和组织不确定性的必要性，甚至利用它们而不失去通过减少不确定性而产生的稳定性的必要性。由于更快的创新周期、更动态的环境以及组织网络中日益增长的相互联系，总体不确定性不断增加，社会技术系统必须不断调整稳定性和灵活性之间的平衡，以确保成功的绩效。基于组织理论、控制理论、决策理论以及工作和组织心理学的概念，提出了一种决策过程，该过程支持对特定环境中减少、维持或增加不确定性的成本和收益进行系统评估。此外，还考虑了影响成本效益认知的个人和集体信仰体系。得出了自动化、规划系统、组织规则手册、安全管理系统以及人力资源管理设计的结果。不确定性管理将成为研究生研究人员以及组织中的运营和战略决策者的有用工具。它提供了许多用于组织和系统设计的具体工具，并通过一系列案例研究进一步说明。决策工程系列重点关注与决策工程相关的工具和技术的基础和应用，并确定它们在工程决策中的相关性。该系列为执业专业人员和应用研究人员提供帮助，帮助他们利用分布式组织知识开发行业内明智的运营和业务决策工具。
The handling of uncertainties stemming from internal processes and the environment is a core issue in organizational and system design. Management of Uncertainty examines the necessity of living with technical and organizational uncertainties, or even taking advantage of them without losing the stability created by reducing uncertainty. With overall uncertainty increasing as a result of faster innovation cycles, more dynamic environments, and growing interconnections in organizational networks, socio-technical systems have to continuously adjust the balance between stability and flexibility in order to secure successful performance. Building on concepts from organization theory, control theory, decision theory, and work and organizational psychology, a decision process is proposed that supports systematic evaluation of the costs and benefits of reducing, maintaining, or increasing uncertainty in a particular context. Also, the individual and collective belief systems that influence cost-benefit perceptions are considered. Consequences for the design of automation, planning systems, organizational rulebooks, safety management systems and also human resource management are drawn. Management of Uncertainty will be a useful tool for postgraduate researchers, as well as for operational and strategic decision-makers in organizations. It offers a number of concrete instruments for organizational and system design, which are further illustrated by a range of case studies. The Decision Engineering series focuses on the foundations and applications of tools and techniques related to decision engineering, and identifies their relevance in engineering decisions. The series provides an aid to practising professionals and applied researchers in the development of tools for informed operational and business decision making, within industry, by utilising distributed organisational knowledge.