Average Inflation Targeting
Average Inflation Targeting
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平均通胀目标
DOI：
10.1353/mcb.2005.0055
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
David Vestin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Marianne Nessén;David Vestin
本文的分析表明，当菲利普斯曲线具有前瞻性成分时，以一个时期通货膨胀率的j期平均值为目标，将导致通货膨胀预期以一种改善货币政策制定者所面临的短期权衡的方式发生变化。因此，平均通货膨胀目标制是“修正的”损失函数的一个例子，从真正的社会目标（承诺下的通货膨胀目标制）的角度来看，如果以自由裁量的方式实施，比自由裁量追求真正的目标本身产生更有效的结果。在纯粹的前瞻性模型中，平均通胀目标制主要由价格水平目标制主导。但是，我们也证明了在微观基础模型中，菲利普斯曲线既有前瞻性的和向后看的组件，有情况下，平均通货膨胀目标提供更有效的结果比“普通”的一个时期的通货膨胀目标和价格水平目标。
The analysis of this paper demonstrates that when the Phillips curve has forward-looking components, a goal for average inflation—i.e., targeting a j-period average of one-period inflation rates—will cause inflation expectations to change in a way that improves the short-run trade-off faced by the monetary policymaker. Average inflation targeting is thus an example of a "modified" loss function, which when implemented in a discretionary fashion results in more efficient outcomes from the standpoint of the true social objective (inflation targeting under commitment), than the discretionary pursuit of the true objective itself. In purely forward-looking models, average inflation targeting is dominated by price level targeting. But we also demonstrate in a micro-founded model where the Phillips curve has both forward- and backward-looking components that there are cases when the average inflation target provides more efficient outcomes than both "ordinary" one-period inflation targeting and price level targeting.