Evaluating medical capacity for hospitalization and intensive care unit of COVID-19: A queue model approach.
Evaluating medical capacity for hospitalization and intensive care unit of COVID-19: A queue model approach.
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基于队列模型的新型冠状病毒肺炎住院和重症监护病房医疗能力评估
DOI：
10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.002
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发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Chang RE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jen GH;Chen SY;Chang WJ;Chen CN;Yen AM;Chang RE
COVID-19大流行的激增导致严重的呼吸系统疾病，并由于许多国家的重症监护病房（ICU）短缺而导致大量死亡。我们开发了一个隔间队列模型来描述从病例确认、居家隔离、住院、ICU、康复和死亡的过程。利用意大利伦巴第大区的公共评估数据，我们估计了隔离病房和ICU的两个拥挤指数。当数据可用时，估计了伦巴第、意大利和其他国家（包括法国、西班牙、比利时、美国纽约州、韩国和日本）的额外ICU需求。在意大利伦巴第大区，隔离病床的拥挤度从2.2上升到3月份的峰值6.0，并于5月9日开始下降到3.9，而同期ICU的需求量尚未下降，仍有从2.9上升到8.0的趋势。结果显示，截至5月9日，3月第二周的ICU需求未得到满足。法国、西班牙、比利时和美国纽约州也出现了同样的情况，但韩国和日本没有出现这种情况。对意大利伦巴第截至2020年12月的数据结果进行了估计，以反映病毒变异发生后的住院和ICU需求。为监测医院应对COVID-19疫情的临床能力，我们采用开放评估的列表数据，并以隔间队列模型为基础，制定了两个隔离病房和ICU病床的拥挤指数。
The surge of COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe respiratory conditions and a large number of deaths due to the shortage of intensive care unit (ICU) in many countries. We developed a compartment queue model to describe the process from case confirmation, home-based isolation, hospitalization, ICU, recovery, and death. By using public assessed data in Lombardy, Italy, we estimated two congestion indices for isolation wards and ICU. The excess ICU needs were estimated in Lombardy, Italy, and other countries when data were available, including France, Spain, Belgium, New York State in the USA, South Korea, and Japan. In Lombardy, Italy, the congestion of isolation beds had increased from 2.2 to the peak of 6.0 in March and started to decline to 3.9 as of 9th May, whereas the demand for ICU during the same period has not decreased yet with an increasing trend from 2.9 to 8.0. The results showed the unmet ICU need from the second week in March as of 9th May. The same situation was shown in France, Spain, Belgium, and New York State, USA but not for South Korea and Japan. The results with data until December 2020 for Lombardy, Italy were also estimated to reflect the demand for hospitalization and ICU after the occurrence of viral variants. Two congestion indices for isolation wards and ICU beds using open assessed tabulated data with a compartment queue model underpinning were developed to monitor the clinical capacity in hospitals in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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