Reciprocal Reinsurance Treaties
Reciprocal Reinsurance Treaties
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DOI：
10.1017/s0515036100009557
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发表时间：
1960-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Borch
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Borch
在本文中，我们将研究两家保险公司的情况，这两家公司正在进行谈判，目的是达成一项互惠再保险条约。我们假定这两家公司没有达成协议的强制要求。这意味着如果公司达成一项条约，该条约必须使得两家公司都认为自己比没有任何条约时的状况更好。我们进一步假定没有第三家公司能够介入谈判。这意味着这两家公司要么达成协议，要么没有任何再保险。在这样的情况下双方如何达成协议，是理论经济学的经典问题之一。它通常被称为“讨价还价问题”。这个问题看起来很简单，但这是一种假象。事实证明，要制定出能使该问题有确定解决方案的普遍可接受的假设是极其困难的。冯·诺依曼和摩根斯坦所发展的“博弈论”（10）并没有给出一个确定的解决方案，但它极大地增进了我们对这类问题的理解，而本文将大量借鉴该理论。我们提议研究的情况非常简单，可能过于简单以至于与现实生活中的再保险谈判没有任何关联。如果存在一个再保险市场，而且从经济理论对这个术语的定义来说它也是一个完全市场，那么两家公司之间的讨价还价就没有任何意义。它们都可以通过按市场价格在市场上交易而做得同样好或更好。
In this paper we shall study the situation of two insurance companies which are negotiating with the view of concluding a reciprocal reinsurance treaty. We assume that the two companies are under no compulsion to reach an agreement. This means that if the companies conclude a treaty, the treaty must be such that both companies consider themselves better off than without any treaty. We futher assume that no third company can break into the negotiations. This means that the two companies either have to come to terms, or be without any reinsurance. How the two parties reach an agreement in a situation like this, is one of the classical problems of theoretical economics. It is usually referred to as the “Bargaining Problem”. The problem appears very simple, but this is a deception. It has proved extremely difficult to formulate generally acceptable assumptions which give the problem a determinate solution. The “Theory of Games”, developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern (10), does not give a determinate solution, but it has greatly increased our understanding of such problems, and the present paper will draw heavily on that theory. The situation which we propose to study, is very simple, may be too simple to have any bearing on reinsurance negotiations in real life. If there exists a reinsurance market, which also is a perfect market in the sense given to this term in economic theory, bartering between two companies does not make any sense. They could both do equally well or better by dealing in the market at the market price.