From flood science to flood policy: the Foresight Future Flooding project seven years on
From flood science to flood policy: the Foresight Future Flooding project seven years on
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从洪水科学到洪水政策：预见未来洪水项目七周年
DOI：
10.1108/fs-06-2012-0046
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Penning-Rowsell E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Penning-Rowsell E
未来洪水（FFF）项目为中央政府研究了英国到2100年的洪水风险，使用情景和国家风险评估模型，由大约45名高级科学家组成的小组进行定性分析。本文的目的是评估该项目的影响，在国内和国际上。设计/方法/途径-本文评估的影响，FFF项目，在国内和国际上，使用网络搜索，文件分析，以及对洪水风险管理政策领域主要行为者的问卷调查。结果发现，与其他类似项目和出版物相比，该项目在专业人员意识中的渗透率很高，它对政策的影响-无论是直接的还是持续的-都是深远的。然而，FFF倡议并没有创造政策变化，而是促进了其合法化，增加了已经存在的动力，作为政策演变的部分催化和部分增量过程的一个要素。研究限制/含义-项目内部和外部的特殊情况，这意味着，这不能成为一个简单的模式，以配合研究决策者的需要在未来。实际影响-重要的经验教训，可以从这个项目的前瞻性类型的研究方法，其结果传播给其目标受众的方式。独创性/价值-这是一个创新的尝试，以评估一种新型的前瞻性项目的影响。
Purpose–The Foresight Future Flooding (FFF) project researched flood risk in the UK to the year 2100 for central government, using scenarios and a national risk assessment model backed by qualitative analysis from panels of some 45 senior scientists. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of the project, both nationally and internationally.Design/methodology/approach–This paper assesses the impact of the FFF project, both nationally and internationally, using web searches, document analysis, and a questionnaire survey of key actors in the flood risk management policy field.Findings–It was found that the penetration of the project into professionals' consciousness was high in relation to other comparable projects and publications, and its impact on policy – both immediately and continuing – was profound. The FFF initiative did not create policy change, however, but facilitated its legitimation, adding impetus to what was already there, as one element of a part‐catalytic and part‐incremental process of policy evolution.Research limitations/implications–Special circumstances, internal and external to the project, mean that this cannot be a simple model for matching research to policymakers' needs in the future.Practical implications–Important lessons may be learnt from this project about both the methods of forward‐looking foresight‐type research, and the way that its results are disseminated to its target audiences.Originality/value–This is an innovative attempt to assess the impact of a new type of foresight project.