Accelerating Energy Efficiency Improvements in Room Air Conditioners in India: Potential, Costs-Benefits, and Policies
Accelerating Energy Efficiency Improvements in Room Air Conditioners in India: Potential, Costs-Benefits, and Policies
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加速印度房间空调能效的提高：潜力、成本效益和政策
DOI：
10.2172/1830081
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Amol A. Phadke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Abhyankar;N. Shah;W. Park;Amol A. Phadke
作者：Abhyankar，N; Shah，N; Park，WY; Phadke，AA|摘要：收入增加，城市化程度提高以及印度炎热潮湿的气候引发的大量制冷需求正在推动室内空调（AC）的增长。在德里等印度大城市，空调已经占夏季峰值负荷的40-60%，并有望在2030年为峰值需求贡献140吉瓦（GW）（30%）。印度的标准和标签政策在2006年至2016年期间将房间空调的市场平均效率提高了约35%（每年3%），即使通货膨胀调整后的房间空调价格继续下降。在本报告中，我们评估了在印度加速提高房间空调效率的技术可行性和成本效益，并讨论了实现这一目标所需的政策改进。我们还介绍了日本和韩国快速提高空调效率的例子。在适当的政策和计划的推动下，这些国家的空调效率每年提高8%以上，在7到10年内使能源效率几乎翻了一番，而经通胀调整的空调价格则有所下降。我们还发现，印度市场上销售的最高效的房间空调的效率几乎是2015-16年市场上销售的平均空调的两倍。因此，我们得出的结论是，在印度加快房间空调效率所需的技术是可用的。如果从2018年开始，市场平均房间空调效率每年提高6%，而不是目前的每年3%，约39吉瓦的峰值负荷（相当于约80个500兆瓦的发电厂），到2030年，每年可节省超过64太瓦时的能源（相当于整个古吉拉特邦目前的用电量）。2018年至2030年期间，消费者利益的净现值（NPV）将在4，000亿卢比（Rs）或6亿美元之间（如果房间空调价格根据当前效率改善成本的估计按预期上涨）至173，000亿卢比或250亿美元（如果房间空调价格没有随着效率的提高而增加，就像历史上的情况一样）。虽然反弹效应可能会减少提高效率的财政效益，它不会影响整体的消费者福利利益。这一利益可以通过提高印度的一星级效率水平来实现（事实上的最低能源性能标准）的水平，目前（2016年）的五-到2022年达到星星等级，到2026年达到市场上现有最佳技术的水平。批量采购，类似于UJALA LED计划中使用的批量采购，以及激励计划对于加速市场转型至关重要，特别是拉动市场顶部。类似的程序也可以用于其他类型的AC。
Author(s): Abhyankar, N; Shah, N; Park, WY; Phadke, AA | Abstract: Rising incomes, increasing urbanization, and large cooling demand prompted by India’s hot, humid climate are driving increasing uptake of room air conditioners (ACs). Air conditioning already accounts for 40-60% of summer peak load in large Indian cities such as Delhi and is on track to contribute 140 gigawatts (GW) ( 30%) to peak demand in 2030. India’s standards and labeling policies improved the market average efficiency of room ACs by about 35% between 2006 and 2016 (3% per year) even as inflation-adjusted room AC prices continued to decline. In this report, we assess the technical feasibility and costs and benefits of accelerating the efficiency improvement in room ACs in India and discuss policy enhancements needed to achieve this goal.We also describe examples of rapid AC efficiency improvement from Japan and Korea. Driven by appropriate policies and programs, AC efficiency in these countries improved by more than 8% per year, resulting in near-doubling of energy efficiency over seven to ten years while inflation-adjusted AC prices declined. We also find that the most efficient room AC sold on the Indian market is almost twice as efficient as the average AC sold on the market in 2015-16. As a result, we conclude that the technology needed to accelerate room AC efficiency in India is available.If, starting in 2018, the market average room AC efficiency improves by 6% per year instead of the current 3% per year, about 39 GW of peak load (equivalent to about 80 power plants of 500 MW each), and more than 64 TWh per year of energy (equivalent to the current electricity consumption of the entire state of Gujarat) could be saved by 2030. The net present value (NPV) of the consumer benefit between 2018 and 2030 would range from rupees (Rs) 4,000 crore or US$600 million (if room AC prices increase as expected based on estimates of current cost of efficiency improvement) to Rs 173,000 crore or US$25 billion (if room AC prices do not increase with efficiency improvement, as has been the case historically). Although the rebound effect could reduce the financial benefit of efficiency improvements, it would not affect the overall consumer welfare benefit.This benefit is achievable by ratcheting up India’s one-star efficiency level (the de-facto minimum energy performance standard) for room ACs to the level of the current (2016) five-star rating by 2022 and to the level of current best available technology on the market by 2026. Bulk procurement, similar to that used in UJALA LED Program, and incentive programs would be crucial for accelerating the market transformation, especially pulling up the top of the market. Similar programs could be implemented for other types of ACs.