Past and recent changes in the North Atlantic oscillation
Past and recent changes in the North Atlantic oscillation
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DOI：
10.1002/wcc.150
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Pinto;C. Raible
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Pinto;C. Raible
北大西洋涛动（NAO）是当前气候条件下北大西洋地区大气环流变率的主要模态。虽然这种模式全年都存在，但在冬季最为重要，解释了大规模气压场的大部分变化，因此在很大程度上决定了北大西洋盆地和西欧的天气状况。在这项研究中，NAO的基本理解，它的变化在不同的时间尺度和驱动物理机制的最新文献的审查。特别是，观察到的NAO变化和长期趋势是通过考虑古代理证据从长期角度来看的。最近发布的NAO重建的代表性数量进行了讨论。虽然重建与仪器重叠期间的观测相当吻合，但仪器前时期的不同重建之间存在相当高的不确定性，这导致部分不一致的结果，即NAO重建甚至在符号上都不一致的时期。最后，我们强调了未来需要更广泛的定义NAO，随着时间的推移的遥相关中心的稳定性的评估，分析的关系，其他相关变量，如温度和降水，以及相关的过程。WIREs Clim Change 2012，3：79-90. doi：10.1002/wcc.150
The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is under current climate conditions the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability over the North Atlantic region. While the pattern is present during the entire year, it is most important during winter, explaining a large part of the variability of the large‐scale pressure field, being thus largely determinant for the weather conditions over the North Atlantic basin and over Western Europe. In this study, a review of recent literature on the basic understanding of the NAO, its variability on different time scales and driving physical mechanisms is presented. In particular, the observed NAO variations and long‐term trends are put into a long term perspective by considering paleo‐proxy evidence. A representative number of recently released NAO reconstructions are discussed. While the reconstructions agree reasonably well with observations during the instrumental overlapping period, there is a rather high uncertainty between the different reconstructions for the pre‐instrumental period, which leads to partially incoherent results, that is, periods where the NAO reconstructions do not agree even in sign. Finally, we highlight the future need of a broader definition of the NAO, the assessment of the stability of the teleconnection centers over time, the analysis of the relations to other relevant variables like temperature and precipitation, as well as on the relevant processes involved. WIREs Clim Change 2012, 3:79–90. doi: 10.1002/wcc.150