Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures
Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures
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DOI：
10.1038/ngeo1057
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Xoplaki, Elena
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hegerl, Gabriele;Luterbacher, Juerg;Xoplaki, Elena
气候变化的区域性和季节性表现决定了温室效应对生态系统和社会的影响(1)。虽然人类活动对欧洲气温的影响在20世纪已被检测到(2，3)，但有人认为，1900年前外部影响对欧洲气温的影响可以忽略不计(4)。在这里，我们使用季节性欧洲陆地温度(5，6)的重建和三个全球气候模式(7-9)的模拟来表明，在过去的五个世纪里，对气候的外部影响--例如平流层火山气溶胶或温室气体的浓度、其他人为效应以及可能的太阳总辐射的变化--对欧洲温度产生了明显的影响。特别是，我们发现，外部强迫对重建的冬季和春季温度的长期变化有显著的贡献(p<；5%)，并且它是自17世纪末以来观测到的冬季变暖的75%的最佳原因。气候变暖在很大程度上要归因于温室气体排放。夏季气温仅在1900年前对外部强迫有可察觉的(p<；5%)年代际变化。最后，在整个记录中，我们检测到火山喷发后夏季显著降温和冬季显著变暖。
It is the regional and seasonal expression of climate change that determines the effect of greenhouse warming on ecosystems and society(1). Whereas anthropogenic influences on European temperatures have been detected over the twentieth century(2,3), it has been suggested that the impact of external influences on European temperatures before 1900 is negligible(4). Here we use reconstructions of seasonal European land temperature(5,6) and simulations with three global climate models(7-9) to show that external influences on climate-such as the concentrations of stratospheric volcanic aerosols or greenhouse gases, other anthropogenic effects and possibly changes in total solar irradiance-have had a discernible influence on European temperatures throughout the past five centuries. In particular, we find that external forcing contributes significantly (p < 5%) to the reconstructed long-term variability of winter and spring temperatures and that it is responsible for a best guess of 75% of the observed winter warming since the late seventeenth century. This warming is largely attributable to greenhouse-gas forcing. Summer temperatures show detectable (p < 5%) interdecadal variations in response to external forcing before 1900 only. Finally, throughout the record we detect highly significant summer cooling and significant winter warming following volcanic eruptions.