Preferential trade agreements and their role in world trade
Preferential trade agreements and their role in world trade
复制标题
优惠贸易协定及其在世界贸易中的作用
DOI：
10.1007/s10290-010-0054-x
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
D. Medvedev
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Medvedev
本文利用有效的优惠贸易协定的综合数据库和详细的世界贸易矩阵来研究优惠贸易协定对双边贸易的影响。优惠贸易区伙伴国之间的贸易总额不能很好地代表优惠贸易（优惠可能起作用的关税细目贸易）：前者在2000-2002年占全球贸易的三分之一，后者在六分之一到十分之一之间。重力模型估计表明，使用贸易总额来评估PTA的影响导致PTA系数显著向下倾斜：相对于PTA成员资格的贸易半弹性从贸易总额的87%上升到优惠贸易的119%。产品排除和漫长的过渡期严重限制了优惠贸易；南南协定对优惠贸易的边际影响远高于北南协定，而北南协定对优惠贸易的边际影响几乎为零。
This paper investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral trade using a comprehensive data base of PTAs in force and a detailed matrix of world trade. Total trade between PTA partners is a poor proxy for preferential trade (trade in tariff lines where preferences are likely to matter): while the former was one-third of global trade in 2000–2002, the latter was between one-sixth and one-tenth. Gravity model estimates indicate that using total trade to assess the impacts of PTAs leads to a significant downward bias in the PTA coefficient: the semi-elasticity of trade with respect to PTA membership rises from 87% for total trade to 119% for preferential trade. Product exclusions and long phase-in periods significantly limit preferential trade; the marginal impact of South-South agreements on preferential trade is much higher than North-South PTAs, while the effect of North-North agreements is insignificantly different from zero.