A real option model for geothermal heating investment decision making: Considering carbon trading and resource taxes
A real option model for geothermal heating investment decision making: Considering carbon trading and resource taxes
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地热采暖投资决策的实物期权模型：考虑碳交易和资源税
DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2019.116252
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发表时间：
2019-12
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Lancui Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shiwei Yu;Zhenxi Li;Yi-Ming Wei;Lancui Liu
本文在考虑碳交易和资源税的情况下，建立了复合实物期权定价模型的二维二项格，以帮助投资者对地热供热项目进行决策。同时考虑延期期权和放弃期权两种类型的实物期权。最后，以中国雄安新区某地热供热项目为例，验证了该模型的可行性。结果表明：1)在实物期权法下，投资者的“投资决策”至少要推迟一年，而在净现值法下，投资者的投资价值至少要比净现值法高出0.9倍；2)不同的补贴方式会影响投资时间和项目价值，一次性补贴可能导致项目价值增大，但会延迟投资时间；3)实施碳交易可增加项目价值，实施资源税可降低项目价值；4)延期期权价值对初始化石燃料价格负敏感，而放弃期权价值对碳价格波动正敏感。
By considering carbon trading and resource tax, this study established a bidimensional binominal lattice of a compound real option pricing model to help investors make decisions for geothermal heating projects. Two types of real options, to defer and to abandon, are simultaneously considered. Further, a case study on the decision making for a geothermal heating project in the Xiongan New Area in China was conducted to verify the feasibility of the proposed model. The results show that 1) the investors should delay the “invest-decision” at least one year under the real option rule but that investment value would at least 0.9 times more than that by the net present value method; 2) different subsidies methods could influence the investment time and project value, and one-time subsidies may lead to larger project value but delay the investment time; 3) The project value could be increased by conducting carbon trading but could be reduced by resource tax implementation; and 4) the value of option to defer is negatively sensitive to the initial fossil fuel price, but the value of the option to abandon is positively sensitive to the volatility of carbon price.
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