Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging.
Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging.
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DOI：
10.1353/dem.2010.0002
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Mason A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lee R;Mason A
在整个人口结构转型中，随着儿童抚养程度的下降，死亡率的下降和生育率的下降导致了几十年的赡养率上升。在其他条件不变的情况下，这些改善的支持比率提高了人均消费，但最终会随着人口老龄化而恶化。人口老龄化及其导致的力量不仅会造成支持率的可怕下降，而且还会通过增加对物质和人力资本的投资，极大地提高生产率和人均收入。更长的寿命、更低的生育率和人口老龄化都增加了养老消费所需的财富需求。这导致每个工人的资本增加，即使总储蓄率下降。然而，如果通过增加对老年人的家庭或公共养老金转移来满足对财富的日益增长的需求，那么工人的人均资本可能不会上升。因此，制度和政策对人口老龄化的后果至关重要。在整个转型过程中，人力资本的积累也各不相同。生育率和死亡率越低，每个孩子的人力资本投资越高，这也提高了劳动生产率。总而言之，人力和物质资本积累带来的积极变化可能会超过支持率下降的问题。我们利用国家转移账户项目的估计和分析来说明和量化这些观点。
Across the demographic transition, declining mortality followed by declining fertility produces decades of rising support ratios as child dependency falls. These improving support ratios raise per capita consumption, other things equal, but eventually deteriorate as the population ages. Population aging and the forces leading to it can produce not only frightening declines in support ratios but also very substantial increases in productivity and per capita income by raising investment in physical and human capital. Longer life, lower fertility, and population aging all raise the demand for wealth needed to provide for old-age consumption. This leads to increased capital per worker even as aggregate saving rates fall. However, capital per worker may not rise if the increased demand for wealth is satisfied by increased familial or public pension transfers to the elderly. Thus, institutions and policies matter for the consequences of population aging. The accumulation of human capital also varies across the transition. Lower fertility and mortality are associated with higher human capital investment per child, also raising labor productivity. Together, the positive changes due to human and physical capital accumulation will likely outweigh the problems of declining support ratios. We draw on estimates and analyses from the National Transfer Accounts project to illustrate and quantify these points.