Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens
Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens
复制标题
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.252512799
复制
发表时间：
2002-12-24
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Grenfell, BT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gog, JR;Grenfell, BT
菌株结构在许多病原体的潜在动力学中具有根本的重要性。然而，以前的模型过于复杂，无法适应许多菌株。本文以一个简单模型的形式提供了解决这个问题的方法，该模型能够捕获通过宿主交叉免疫相互作用的大量抗原类型的动态。我们推导了该模型的结构，该模型采用基于状态的公式来管理许多菌株的复杂性，假设极化免疫和交叉免疫作用以降低传播概率。然后，我们应用该模型来解决菌株动力学中的基本问题，特别关注流感的跨病毒动力学。该模型显示菌株有“聚集”的倾向。相对于宿主生命周期而言，在较长的感染期，集群可能共存。相比之下，短的感染期导致在任何给定时间都有一个主要的集群。我们展示了簇替换的速度如何取决于交叉免疫的特异性和潜在的病原体突变率。
Strain structure is of fundamental importance in the underlying dynamics of a number of pathogens. However, previous models have been too complex to accommodate many strains. This paper offers a solution to this problem, in the form of a simple model that is capable of capturing the dynamics of a large number of antigenic types that interact via host cross-immunity. We derive the structure of the model, which can manage the complexity of many strains by using a status-based formulation, assuming polarized immunity and cross-immunity act to reduced transmission probability. We then apply the model to address basic questions in strain dynamics, focusing particularly on the interpandernic dynamics of influenza. This model shows that strains have a tendency to "cluster." For a long infectious period, relative to host lifetime, clusters may coexist. By contrast, a short infectious period leads to a single dominant cluster at any given time. We show how the speed of cluster replacement depends on the specificity of cross-immunity and on the underlying pathogen mutation rate.