Energy challenges for Turkey: Identifying sustainable options for future electricity generation up to 2050
Energy challenges for Turkey: Identifying sustainable options for future electricity generation up to 2050
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DOI：
10.1016/j.spc.2017.02.001
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
12.1
通讯作者：
Azapagic, Adisa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Atilgan, Burcin;Azapagic, Adisa
本文首次提出了土耳其至2050年未来电力情景的生命周期环境、经济和社会可持续性评估。使用多标准决策分析(MCDA)为19个可持续性指标制定和评估了14个情景，以帮助确定最可持续的情景。对于11种影响中的7种，以化石燃料为主的情景在环境上是最不可持续的，其中包括全球变暖潜力(GWP)，它比今天的影响增加了四倍。选择可再生能源密集型道路将使目前的全球升温潜能值减半，化石燃料的使用量减少三倍；然而，元素的枯竭将增加70倍，投资成本增加10倍。MCDA显示，除了对经济标准的高度偏好外，可再生能源和核能密集型情景的表现优于以化石燃料为主的情景。然而，它们糟糕的环境和社会表现使它们总体上最不可持续。就所考虑的大多数环境、经济和社会影响而言，可再生核密集型方案是最可持续的选择。减少化石燃料在电力组合中的份额不仅将显著减少对环境的影响，还将减少成本、伤亡和伤亡，同时还可以改善能源安全。
This paper presents for the first time a life cycle environmental, economic and social sustainability assessment of future electricity scenarios for Turkey up to 2050. Fourteen scenarios have been developed and assessed for 19 sustainability indicators, using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to help identify the most sustainable scenarios. The fossil fuel dominated scenarios are environmentally the least sustainable for seven out of 11 impacts, including the global warming potential (GWP) which increases up to four times on today's impact. Opting for renewable-intensive pathways would halve the current GWP and reduce the use of fossil fuels by three times; however, the depletion of elements would increase 70-fold and investment costs 10-fold. MCDA shows that renewable and nuclear intensive scenarios outperform those dominated by fossil fuels, except for the very high preference for the economic criteria. However, their poor environmental and social performances make them least sustainable overall. The renewable-nuclear intensive scenarios are the most sustainable options with respect to most of the environmental, economic and social impacts considered. Reducing the share of fossil fuels in the electricity mix would not only reduce significantly the environmental impacts, but also the costs, injuries and fatalities, while also improving energy security.