Analysis of passing sequences, shots and goals in soccer
Analysis of passing sequences, shots and goals in soccer
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DOI：
10.1080/02640410410001716779
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发表时间：
2005-05-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Franks, I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hughes, M;Franks, I
早期对足球进球方式的研究（Reep和Benjamin，1968）可能塑造了英国足球的战术。大多数教练都或多或少地受到了被称为“长传”或“直接打法”的战术的影响，这是本研究的结果。这些研究的数据发表于20世纪60年代末，已经被几个不同的研究小组对不同的FIFA世界杯比赛的分析所证实。在本研究中，对两届世界杯决赛中导致进球的传球次数进行了分析。结果符合以前的研究，但当这些数据相对于通过序列的各自长度的频率进行归一化时，有更多的目标得分从较长的通过序列比从较短的通过序列。对于这些较长的传球序列，球队每次控球的射门次数明显更多，但是“直接进攻”的射门进球率比“控球进攻”的要好。最后，在1990年世界杯决赛中，对不同长度传球序列的成功和失败球队的投篮数据进行分析表明，对于成功的球队，较长的传球序列比较短的传球序列产生更多的进球。对于失败的球队来说，这两种战术都没有明显的优势。进一步的结论是，Reep和Benjamin（1968）的原始工作虽然是足球分析的一个重要里程碑，但只导致了对所研究现象的部分理解。
Early research into how goals were scored in association football (Reep and Benjamin, 1968) may have shaped the tactics of British football. Most coaches have been affected, to a greater or lesser extent, by the tactics referred to as the "long-ball game" or "direct play", which was a tactic employed as a consequence of this research. Data from these studies, published in the late 1960s, have been reconfirmed by analyses of different FIFA World Cup tournaments by several different research groups. In the present study, the number of passes that led to goals scored in two FIFA World Cup finals were analysed. The results conform to that of previous research, but when these data were normalized with respect to the frequency of the respective lengths of passing sequences, there were more goals scored from longer passing sequences than from shorter passing sequences. Teams produced significantly more shots per possession for these longer passing sequences, but the strike ratio of goals from shots is better for "direct play" than for "possession play". Finally, an analysis of the shooting data for successful and unsuccessful teams for different lengths of passing sequences in the 1990 FIFA World Cup finals indicated that, for successful teams, longer passing sequences produced more goals per possession than shorter passing sequences. For unsuccessful teams, neither tactic had a clear advantage. It was further concluded that the original work of Reep and Benjamin (1968), although a key landmark in football analysis, led only to a partial understanding of the phenomenon that was investigated.