Customer Risk from Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing: Bill Volatility and Hedgability
Customer Risk from Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing: Bill Volatility and Hedgability
复制标题
实时零售电价带来的客户风险：电费波动性和对冲性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Borenstein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Borenstein
在实时零售电价的辩论中，客户表达的最关键的担忧之一是，他们将面临电力成本波动的风险。人们担心的似乎是，客户可能会发现自己在价格飞涨的当天消耗了大量的电力，导致每月的账单很高。我使用1142个大型工业客户的需求数据分析了这种风险的大小，然后询问通过各种直接的金融工具可以消除多少这种风险。我发现，非常简单的对冲策略，远期购买合同，已经使用了许多RTP程序，可以消除超过80%的法案波动，否则会发生。然后，我表明，稍微复杂的应用程序，这些远期电力购买可以显着提高其效果，减少法案波动。
One of the most critical concerns that customers have voiced in the debate over real-time retail electricity pricing is that they would be exposed to risk from fluctuations in their electricity cost. The concern seems to be that a customer could find itself consuming a large quantity of power on the day that prices skyrocket, resulting in a high monthly bill. I analyze the magnitude of this risk, using demand data from 1142 large industrial customers, and then ask how much of this risk can be eliminated through various straightforward financial instruments. I find that very simple hedging strategies—forward purchase contracts that are already used with many RTP programs—can eliminate more than 80% of the bill volatility that would otherwise occur. I then show that a slightly more sophisticated application of these forward power purchases can significantly enhance their effect on reducing bill volatility.