The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways
The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.005
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发表时间：
2012-10-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Wilbanks, Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kriegler, Elmar;O'Neill, Brian C.;Wilbanks, Thomas
社会经济假设情景是探索人为气候变化的长期后果和现有应对办法的重要工具。更一致地使用社会经济假设情景，以便对缓解、适应和残余气候影响有一个综合的视角，这仍然是一个重大挑战。我们断言，确定一套全球叙事和社会经济路径，为不同的区域背景提供可扩展性，合理覆盖关键的社会经济层面和相关的未来，以及将气候政策与反事实的“无政策”情景区分开来的复杂方法，将是应对这一挑战的重要一步。为此，我们提出了“共同的社会经济（参考）途径”的概念。通过沿着缓解和适应挑战的各个方面确定路径，可以充分涵盖相关的社会经济方面。应当以反复的方式，并在综合评估建模者与影响、适应和脆弱性研究人员之间密切合作的情况下，具体说明这些途径，以确保涵盖关键层面、充分的可扩展性和广泛采用。它们不仅可用作分析的投入，而且可用于收集不同气候变化分析的结果，形成一个由两个方面界定的矩阵：以辐射强迫或温度水平为特征的气候暴露和按路径分类的社会经济发展。在某些应用中，可能必须通过“共同的气候政策假设”来扩大社会经济途径，“共同的气候政策假设”应包括气候政策的全球组成部分，而某些研究可能需要这些组成部分作为投入。我们的结论是，共同的社会经济（参考）路径的发展，以及更广泛的综合社会经济情景，是一个有用的协调中心，综合评估和影响，适应和脆弱性研究人员之间的合作努力。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. A more consistent use of socio-economic scenarios that would allow an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts remains a major challenge. We assert that the identification of a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways offering scalability to different regional contexts, a reasonable coverage of key socio-economic dimensions and relevant futures, and a sophisticated approach to separating climate policy from counter-factual "no policy" scenarios would be an important step toward meeting this challenge. To this end, we introduce the concept of "shared socio-economic (reference) pathways". Sufficient coverage of the relevant socio-economic dimensions may be achieved by locating the pathways along the dimensions of challenges to mitigation and to adaptation. The pathways should be specified in an iterative manner and with close collaboration between integrated assessment modelers and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers to assure coverage of key dimensions, sufficient scalability and widespread adoption. They can be used not only as inputs to analyses, but also to collect the results of different climate change analyses in a matrix defined by two dimensions: climate exposure as characterized by a radiative forcing or temperature level and socio-economic development as classified by the pathways. For some applications, socio-economic pathways may have to be augmented by "shared climate policy assumptions" capturing global components of climate policies that some studies may require as inputs. We conclude that the development of shared socio-economic (reference) pathways, and integrated socio-economic scenarios more broadly, is a useful focal point for collaborative efforts between integrated assessment and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.