Rising consumption of meat and milk in developing countries has created a new food revolution
Rising consumption of meat and milk in developing countries has created a new food revolution
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DOI：
10.1093/jn/133.11.3907s
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发表时间：
2003-11-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Delgado, CL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Delgado, CL
目前，发展中国家人均肉类消费量是富裕的北方国家的三分之一，人均奶制品消费量是富裕的北方国家的四分之一，但这种情况正在迅速改变。过去，发展中国家的肉类消费量增长了发达国家的三倍。畜牧业革命主要由需求驱动。随着收入超过贫困水平和城市化进程的推进，世界各地的穷人都在食用更多的动物产品。到2020年，发展中国家在世界肉类消费总量中的份额将从目前的52%扩大到63%。到2020年，发展中国家将比1996/1998年多消费1.07亿吨肉和1.77亿吨奶，使发达国家增加的1900万吨肉和3200万吨奶相形见绌。预计牲畜产量的增加将要求到2020年每年谷物饲料消费量增加近3亿吨。尽管如此，与过去20年的急剧下降相比，经通胀因素调整后的牲畜和饲料商品价格预计到2020年将略有下降。数十亿人饮食结构的变化是政府不容易扭转的主要力量。发展中国家数百万农村贫困人口的收入和营养状况正在改善。然而，在许多情况下，这些饮食变化也造成严重的环境和健康问题，需要积极的政策参与，以防止不可逆转的后果。
People in developing countries currently consume on average one-third the meat and one-quarter of the milk products per capita compared to the richer North, but this is changing rapidly. The amount of meat consumed in developing countries over the past has grown three times as much as it did in the developed countries. The Livestock Revolution is primarily driven by demand. Poor people everywhere are eating more animal products as their incomes rise above poverty level and as they become urbanized. By 2020, the share of developing countries in total world meat consumption will expand from 52% currently to 63%. By 2020, developing countries will consume 107 million metric tons (mmt) more meat and 177 mmt more milk than they did in 1996/1998, dwarfing developed-country increases of 19 mmt for meat and 32 mmt for milk. The projected increase in livestock production will require annual feed consumption of cereals to rise by nearly 300 mmt by 2020. Nonetheless, the inflation-adjusted prices of livestock and feed commodities are expected to fall marginally by 2020, compared to precipitous declines in the past 20 y. Structural change in the diets of billions of people is a primal force not easily reversed by governments. The incomes and nutrition of millions of rural poor in developing countries are improving. Yet in many cases these dietary changes also create serious environmental and health problems that require active policy involvement to prevent irreversible consequences.