Short term hospital occupancy prediction.
Short term hospital occupancy prediction.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10729-006-9000-9
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发表时间：
2007-02-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Isken, Mark W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Littig, Steven J;Isken, Mark W
住院病人普查或入住率是医院资源使用的主要驱动力。入住率的波动使与人员配备、床位管理、救护车分流相关的决策复杂化，并可能最终影响患者护理质量和护理工作满意度。我们描述了我们的方法，在建立一个计算机化的模型，提供短期占用预测整个医院的护理单位和转变。我们的模型是使用真实的医院数据构建的综合系统，并利用个体患者水平的统计预测。我们讨论了在中型社区医院试行该模型的早期版本的结果。本文的主要重点是第二代预测入住模型的开发和方法。该新模型的结果和准确性与基于2年实际医院数据测试的各种其他预测方法进行了比较。
Inpatient census, or occupancy, is a primary driver of resource use in hospitals. Fluctuations in occupancy complicate decisions related to staffing, bed management, ambulance diversions, and may ultimately impact both quality of patient care and nursing job satisfaction. We describe our approach in building a computerized model to provide short-term occupancy predictions for an entire hospital by nursing unit and shift. Our model is a comprehensive system built using real hospital data and utilizes statistical predictions at the individual patient level. We discuss the results of piloting an early version of the model at a mid-size community hospital. The primary focus of the paper is on the development and methodology of a second generation of the predictive occupancy model. The results and accuracy of this new model is compared to a variety of other predictive methods based on tests using 2 years of actual hospital data.