Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.
Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0170949
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Spanger-Siegfried E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dahl KA;Fitzpatrick MF;Spanger-Siegfried E
潮汐洪水是当今全球海平面上升最明显的影响之一。在这里，我们利用一套NOAA验潮仪沿着美国东部和墨西哥湾沿岸，以评估未来海平面上升的频率和潮汐洪水的严重程度的潜在影响。使用2001-2015年的时间段作为基线，我们首先确定潮汐洪水目前发生的频率。使用基于美国国家气候评估的中低，中高和最高预测的局部海平面上升预测，然后我们确定这些地点在两个近期时间范围内发生洪水的频率和程度：2030年和2045年。我们表明，潮汐洪水的增加将是大量的，几乎普遍在我们的分析中包括的52个地点。早在这些地区被永久淹没之前，海平面的稳步上升将迫使许多社区在未来15到30年内与长期的高潮洪水作斗争。
Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.