The impact of free-floating carsharing on car ownership: Early-stage findings from London
The impact of free-floating carsharing on car ownership: Early-stage findings from London
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.02.004
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Polak, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Le Vine, Scott;Polak, John
自由浮动拼车是一项快速增长的城市移动服务。与传统的“往返”汽车共享相比，它在商业规模上出现得更晚，目前它的增长轨迹更陡峭。然而，关于其对可持续运输指标的影响的证据基础还不够完善。这一问题之所以成为话题，原因很多，包括公共政策对这种拼车形式成功的重要性。本研究的目的是建立自由浮动拼车对私家车拥有量的早期影响。我们报告了在伦敦(英国)推出自由浮动汽车共享服务三个月后的某个时间点的调查结果。研究发现，37%(n=347；95%可信区间：+/-5%)的用户表示，自由浮动拼车影响了他们的私家车拥有量。在这37%的人中，绝大多数(83%)表示，影响机制是他们决定不买本来会买的车。11%的人表示，他们在过去三个月内处理过汽车，6%的人表示将在未来三个月内出售私家车。用户的平均收入和教育水平都高于普通人群。在服务使用者群体中，多变量分析表明，剔除混淆效应后，较重(更频繁)的服务使用者更有可能表明对汽车保有量的影响，受过高等教育和比其他使用者收入更高的服务使用者都(独立地)与维持一个人的汽车拥有量有关。我们还提出了其他研究结果，将汽车拥有率的影响与进一步的人口统计特征和行为指标联系起来。我们的研究结果应该被解释为与FFC用户的“早期采用者”群体有关，随着自由浮动拼车服务的成熟和发展，需要进行进一步的研究，以确定用户特征、行为和影响是如何演变的。
Free-floating carsharing is a rapidly growing urban mobility service. It has emerged at commercial scale more recently than traditional 'round-trip' carsharing, and at present its growth trajectory is steeper. The evidence base regarding its impacts on sustainable transport indicators is, however, less well-developed. This issue is topical for a variety of reasons, including the importance of public policy to the success of this form of carsharing.The research objective of this study is to establish the early-stage impact of free-floating carsharing on private car ownership. We report findings from a point in time three months following the initiation of a free-floating carsharing service in London (UK). We investigate characteristics of FFCS users that are associated with having one's car ownership impacted, as well as the distinction between deterrence of increased car ownership and sale/disposal of a previously owned private car.We find that 37% (n=347; 95% confidence interval: +/- 5%) of users indicate that free-floating carsharing has impacted their ownership of private cars. Of this 37%, a large majority (83%) indicated that the mechanism of impact was that they decided not to buy a car that they otherwise would have purchased. 11% reported that they had disposed of a car in the past three months, and 6% stated that they will sell a private car within the next three months.The average income and education level of users are both higher than for the general population. Within the population of service-users, multivariate analysis demonstrates that, net of confounding effects, heavier (morefrequent) service-users are more likely to indicate impacts on car ownership, and that being highly-educated and higher-income than other users were both (independently) associated with maintaining one's car ownership level. Additional findings are presented that relate car ownership impacts to further demographic characteristics as well as behavioural indicators.Our findings should be interpreted to pertain to the 'early adopter' cohort of FFCS users, and as free-floating carsharing services mature and grow further research will be needed to ascertain how user characteristics, behaviour and impacts are evolving.