Corn Area Response to Local Ethanol Markets in the United States: A Grid Cell Level Analysis
Corn Area Response to Local Ethanol Markets in the United States: A Grid Cell Level Analysis
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DOI：
10.1093/ajae/aav095
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发表时间：
2016-04-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Williams, Ryan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Motamed, Mesbah;McPhail, Lihong;Williams, Ryan
我们测量了2006年至2010年美国玉米和总农业面积对生物燃料繁荣的反应。具体来说，我们使用最新的微尺度网格细胞数据来测试一个地区的玉米和农业种植总量是否会随着附近乙醇精炼厂的产能而增加。根据这些数据，玉米种植面积和整个农业不仅在已开垦的地区增长，而且还扩大到以前未开垦的地区。玉米种植面积和农业总种植面积也与乙醇工厂的远近相关，尽管这种关系随着时间的推移而减弱。然而，对种植面积和乙醇精炼厂之间联系的正式估计，必须考虑到乙醇工厂和玉米供应区域的内生区位决定。我们提出的历史证据，以支持使用美国铁路网络作为一个有效的工具乙醇工厂的位置。我们的估计表明，一个地区的邻近炼油能力对玉米种植面积和农业总面积有强烈而显著的影响。在种植面积相对较小的地区，乙醇植物的影响最大。乙醇对当地农业产出影响的高分辨率证据可以为关注作物多样性、环境可持续性和农村经济发展的研究人员和决策者提供信息。
We measure corn and total agricultural area response to the biofuels boom in the United States from 2006 to 2010. Specifically, we use newly available micro-scale grid cell data to test whether a location's corn and total agricultural cultivation rose in response to the capacity of ethanol refineries in their vicinity. Based on these data, acreage in corn and overall agriculture not only grew in already-cultivated areas but also expanded into previously uncultivated areas. Acreage in corn and total agriculture also correlated with proximity to ethanol plants, though the relationship dampened over the time period. A formal estimation of the link between acreage and ethanol refineries, however, must account for the endogenous location decisions of ethanol plants and areas of corn supply. We present historical evidence to support the use of the US railroad network as a valid instrument for ethanol plant locations. Our estimates show that a location's neighborhood refining capacity exerts strong and significant effects on acreage planted in corn and total agricultural acreage. The largest impacts of ethanol plants were felt in locations where cultivation area was relatively low. This high-resolution evidence of ethanol impacts on local agricultural outcomes can inform researchers and policy-makers concerned with crop diversity, environmental sustainability, and rural economic development.