Estimates of tidal-marsh bird densities using Bayesian networks
Estimates of tidal-marsh bird densities using Bayesian networks
复制标题
使用贝叶斯网络估计潮汐沼泽鸟类密度
DOI：
10.1002/jwmg.21567
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. G. Shriver
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Whitney A. Wiest;M. Correll;B. Marcot;Brian J. Olsen;C. Elphick;T. Hodgman;G. Guntenspergen;W. G. Shriver
保护潮汐沼泽鸟类群落需要采取战略，以解决人类发展对海平面上升速度不断增加的影响的持续压力。了解潮汐沼泽鸟类的分布和种群规模对制定这些战略很重要。在美国东北部，海平面上升的估计是全球平均水平的3倍，5种鸟类是潮汐沼泽专家：秧鸡（Rallus crepitans），柳树（Tringa semipalmata），纳尔逊麻雀（Ammospiza nelsoni），盐沼麻雀（A. caudacuta）和海滨麻雀A. maritima）。我们使用了区域沼泽鸟类调查开发贝叶斯网络模型，以确定影响斑块规模的物种密度的因素，并估计区域人口规模。我们模拟物种密度作为生境协变量的函数在补丁，本地，景观和区域空间尺度。密度是最敏感的补丁的位置和尺寸，补丁的地貌环境，人类发展指数，平均海平面的变化。我们估计每根铁轨需要110，000磅（95% CI 1/4 61，000 - 159，000），111，000只幼仔（95% CI 70，000 - 152，000），7，000只纳尔逊麻雀（95% CI 4，000 - 10，000），60，000只盐沼麻雀（95% CI 40，000 - 80，000）和234，000只海滨麻雀（95%CI1/4 112，000 - 356，000）从美国-加拿大边境到美国弗吉尼亚州的切萨皮克湾口（包括该湾）。我们的丰度估计可用于确定多个地理尺度的优先保护区，我们的模型有助于确定潮汐沼泽恢复和管理的关键栖息地和景观组成部分，以使潮汐沼泽鸟类受益，并可对其他物种进行修改。2018野生动物协会
Conserving tidal-marsh bird communities requires strategies to address continuing pressures from human development to the effects of increasing rates of sea-level rise. Knowing tidal-marsh bird distributions and population sizes are important for developing these strategies. In the Northeast United States, where estimates of sea-level rise are 3 times higher than the global average, 5 bird species are tidalmarsh specialists: clapper rail (Rallus crepitans), willet (Tringa semipalmata), Nelson’s sparrow (Ammospiza nelsoni), saltmarsh sparrow (A. caudacuta), and seaside sparrow (A. maritima). We used a regional marsh bird survey to develop Bayesian network models to identify factors that influence patch-scale species density and to estimate regional population sizes. We modeled species density as a function of habitat covariates at the patch, local, landscape, and regional spatial scales. Densities were most sensitive to patch location and dimension, patch geomorphic setting, indices of human development, and changes in mean sea level. We estimated 110,000 clapper rails (95% CI1⁄4 61,000–159,000), 111,000 willets (95% CI1⁄4 70,000–152,000), 7,000 Nelson’s sparrows (95% CI1⁄4 4,000–10,000), 60,000 saltmarsh sparrows (95% CI1⁄4 40,000–80,000), and 234,000 seaside sparrows (95% CI1⁄4 112,000–356,000) from the United States–Canada border to, and including, the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, USA. Our abundance estimates can be used to identify priority conservation areas at multiple geographic scales and our models help identify key habitat and landscape components for tidal-marsh restoration and management to benefit tidal-marsh birds and can be modified for other species. 2018 The Wildlife Society.