Impact of Prior Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes on Simulations of Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Impact of Prior Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes on Simulations of Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
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DOI：
10.1029/2021jd034794
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发表时间：
2021-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yu Fu;H. Liao;X. Tian;Hao Gao;Binghao Jia;Rui Han
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yu Fu;H. Liao;X. Tian;Hao Gao;Binghao Jia;Rui Han
陆地生态系统在形成大气CO2的分布方面具有重要作用，但不确定它们对CO2浓度的影响有多大。我们评估了多尺度合成和陆地模式相互比较项目（MsTMIP）中不同生物圈模式得出的陆地通量对基于全球化学传输模式（GEOS ‐ Chem）的大气CO2估算的影响，当这些通量作为先验信息时。我们研究了15 MsTMIP陆地通量估计的时空不确定性。我们发现，在温带北美，热带和温带南美，南部非洲，欧洲和热带亚洲的陆地通量的高度不确定性。敏感性模拟结果表明，随着陆地通量的增加，年平均CO2浓度的变化幅度为6.0 - 8.0ppmv。陆地通量的年际变化趋势对大气CO2浓度的模拟趋势有显著影响。由于先前陆地通量的扩散，日平均CO2异常的巨大差异在− 1.0至+1.0 ppmv的四分位数范围内变化，中国、美国和欧洲亚日CO2浓度的变化幅度在4.0 - 6.0 ppmv范围内。我们的研究结果表明，迫切需要增加的可靠性，在CO2模拟的陆地通量估计。由于集合平均通量的差异，在世界大多数地区模拟的地表季节CO2浓度变化为± 2.0 ppmv，反映了现有优化陆地通量对CO2模拟的不确定性的影响。
Terrestrial ecosystems have a significant role in shaping the distribution of atmospheric CO2, but it is uncertain how much they affect CO2 concentrations. We assessed the impact of terrestrial fluxes derived from different biosphere models in the Multi‐scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) on atmospheric CO2 estimations based on a global chemical transport model (GEOS‐Chem) when these fluxes were applied as prior information. We examined the spatiotemporal uncertainty in terrestrial flux estimations from 15 MsTMIP terrestrial fluxes. We found high uncertainties in the terrestrial fluxes for temperate North America, tropical and temperate South America, southern Africa, Europe and tropical Asia. Sensitivity simulations showed that the annual mean CO2 concentration changed by 6.0–8.0 ppmv with the spread of the terrestrial fluxes. The interannual trend in the terrestrial fluxes could significantly affect the simulated trend of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. As a result of the spread in the prior terrestrial fluxes, large differences in the daily mean CO2 anomalies changed with an interquartile range of −1.0 to +1.0 ppmv and the magnitude of change in the sub‐daily CO2 concentrations was in the range 4.0–6.0 ppmv for China, the USA and Europe. Our results suggest an urgent need to increase the reliability of terrestrial flux estimates in CO2 simulations. Surface seasonal CO2 concentrations were simulated to change by ±2.0 ppmv in most regions of the world due to the differences in the ensemble mean fluxes, reflecting the impact of the uncertainties in the existing optimized terrestrial fluxes on CO2 simulations.