Transport modes and tourism seasonality in Italy: By air or by road?
Transport modes and tourism seasonality in Italy: By air or by road?
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意大利的交通方式和旅游季节性：航空还是公路？
作者：
A. Vergori;Serena Arima
自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，欧洲航空运输放松管制导致越来越多地使用飞机前往旅游目的地。本文探讨了游客旅行习惯的改变对意大利季节性旅游需求模式的影响。事实上，在实证研究中，交通对季节性的作用几乎被忽视了。我们分析了 1997 年至 2018 年按交通方式划分的每月国际入境人数，并使用基尼指数作为季节性指标。基尼系数的分解使我们能够评估每种交通方式（汽车、飞机、轮船、火车）使用增长对季节性的影响。贝塔回归模型证实，乘飞机抵达的游客比例的增加决定了意大利国际旅游需求整体季节性的减少。这些结果可能是政策制定者制定应对季节性策略的起点。
From the late 1990s, the European air transport deregulation has led to the increasing use of the plane to reach tourist destinations. This article investigates the impact of tourists’ changed traveling habits on Italy’s seasonal tourism demand pattern. The role of transportation on seasonality, indeed, has been almost neglected in empirical research. We analyze international monthly arrivals by transport modes from 1997 to 2018, and we use the Gini index as a measure of seasonality. The Gini’s decomposition allows us to evaluate the effects of the growth in the use of each transport mode (cars, planes, ships, trains) on seasonality. A beta regression model confirms that an increment in the proportion of tourist arrivals by airplane determines a reduction in Italy’s overall seasonality of international tourism demand. These results might be a starting point for policy makers in developing strategies to counteract seasonality.