The Impending Peak and Decline of Petroleum Production: an Underestimated Challenge for Conservation of Ecological Integrity
The Impending Peak and Decline of Petroleum Production: an Underestimated Challenge for Conservation of Ecological Integrity
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01503.x
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发表时间：
2010-08-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Mcpherson, Guy R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Czucz, Balint;Gathman, Joseph P.;Mcpherson, Guy R.
在过去的几十年里，石油的消耗速度远远快于新储量的发现。全球石油开采将达到峰值（“石油峰值”）并开始一段不可避免的下降时期的时刻即将到来。这种可能性将推动人类经济系统中能源流动的数量和性质发生根本性变化，这可能会伴随着经济动荡、政治冲突和高度的社会紧张局势。除了是一个地质和经济问题，石油峰值也是一个基本问题，因为它涉及生态系统和保护，因为经济是全球生态系统的一个子系统，人类能源相关行为的变化可能会对自然生态系统产生广泛的影响，从过度使用到废弃。随着满足能源需求变得越来越困难，环境考虑可能很容易被取代。鉴于生态系统和生态系统服务在后石油时代的至关重要性，至关重要的是，在向基于很少或不使用化石燃料的经济过渡期间，明智地管理我们的生态系统。通过从基于内罗毕的评估中获得的认识和理解，可以制定良好的政策。目前，最广泛使用的全球环境变化设想方案，包括《千年生态系统评估》和政府间气候变化专门委员会的设想方案，都没有考虑到资源的限制。考虑到石油峰值对社会和自然影响的潜在程度，应立即解决资源约束情景的制定问题。生态学家和保护生物学家在分析情况和提供指导方面处于重要地位，但这一主题在生态讨论中却明显缺席。我们敦促政治家、企业首席执行官、思想领袖和公民认真考虑这个问题，因为它很可能发展成为21世纪世纪的关键环境问题之一。
In the last few decades petroleum has been consumed at a much faster pace than new reserves have been discovered. The point at which global oil extraction will attain a peak ("peak oil") and begin a period of unavoidable decline is approaching. This eventuality will drive fundamental changes in the quantity and nature of energy flows through the human economic system, which probably will be accompanied by economic turmoil, political conflicts, and a high level of social tension. Besides being a geological and economic issue, peak oil is also a fundamental concern as it pertains to ecological systems and conservation because economics is a subsystem of the global ecosystem and changes in human energy-related behaviors can lead to a broad range of effects on natural ecosystems, ranging from overuse to abandonment. As it becomes more difficult to meet energy demands, environmental considerations may be easily superseded. Given the vital importance of ecosystems and ecosystem services in a postpetroleum era, it is crucially important to wisely manage our ecosystems during the transition period to an economy based on little or no use of fossil fuels. Good policies can be formulated through awareness and understanding gained from scenario-based assessments. Presently, most widely used global scenarios of environmental change do not incorporate resource limitation, including those of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Considering the potential magnitude of the effects of peak oil on society and nature, the development of resource-constrained scenarios should be addressed immediately. Ecologists and conservation biologists are in an important position to analyze the situation and provide guidance, yet the topic is noticeably absent from ecological discussions. We urge politicians, corporate chief executives, thought leaders, and citizens to consider this problem seriously because it is likely to develop into one of the key environmental issues of the 21st century.