Mixed and Complex Mixed Migration during Armed Conflict: Multidimensional Empirical Evidence from Nepal.
Mixed and Complex Mixed Migration during Armed Conflict: Multidimensional Empirical Evidence from Nepal.
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武装冲突期间的混合和复杂的混合移民：来自尼泊尔的多维经验证据。
DOI：
10.1080/00207659.2015.1005434
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Williams,NathalieE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Williams,NathalieE
从历史上看，法律的、政策和学术界在很大程度上归因于被迫和自愿移民之间的二分法，创造了一种有利于法律的和政策目的的非黑即白色的愿景。最近开始讨论混合移徙的可能性，承认强迫移徙和自愿移徙之间可能存在广泛的连续性，大多数移徙者可能是在一定程度上被迫和自愿的情况下移徙的，即使在武装冲突期间也是如此。虽然混合移民假说很受欢迎，但经验证据是不同的，在这一点上有些生硬。在这篇文章中，我贡献了一个直接的理论和因果路径的混合迁移的讨论。我还提出了复杂的混合移民假说，认为不仅不冲突相关的因素影响冲突期间的移民，但他们这样做的不同，比在相对和平时期。我实证检验这两个假设的背景下，最近在尼泊尔的武装冲突。利用详细的调查数据和事件历史模型，结果提供了强有力的证据，混合迁移和复杂的混合迁移在冲突的假设。这些假设和证据表明，武装冲突可能对长期人口增长和变化产生重大影响，在学术和政策领域都具有重大意义。
Historically, legal, policy, and academic communities largely ascribed to a dichotomy between forced and voluntary migration, creating a black-and-white vision that was convenient for legal and policy purposes. More recently, discussions have begun addressing the possibility of mixed migration, acknowledging that there is likely a wide continuum between forced and voluntary migration, and most migrants likely move with some amount of compulsion and some volition, even during armed conflict. While the mixed-migration hypothesis is well-received, empirical evidence is disparate and somewhat blunt at this point. In this article, I contribute a direct theoretical and causal pathway discussion of mixed migration. I also propose the complex mixed-migration hypothesis, which argues that not only do nonconflict-related factors influence migration during conflict, but they do so differently than during periods of relative peace. I empirically test both hypotheses in the context of the recent armed conflict in Nepal. Using detailed survey data and event history models, the results provide strong evidence for both mixed migration and complex mixed migration during conflict hypotheses. These hypotheses and evidence suggest that armed conflict might have substantial effects on long-term population growth and change, with significant relevance in both academic and policy spheres.