OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY SINCE WORLD-WAR-II
OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY SINCE WORLD-WAR-II
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DOI：
10.1086/261140
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发表时间：
1983-01-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
HAMILTON, JD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
HAMILTON, JD
自第二次世界大战以来，除了一次经济衰退外，美国所有的经济衰退都是在原油价格大幅上涨之前发生的，通常会有大约四分之三年的滞后。这并不意味着是石油危机导致了这些衰退。然而，有证据表明，即使在1948年至1972年期间，这种相关性在统计上也是显著的，并且是非虚假的，这支持了石油冲击至少是1972年之前美国经济衰退的一个促成因素的主张。推而言之，能源价格上涨可能是欧佩克后宏观经济表现的主要原因。
All but one of the U.S. recessions since World War II have been preceded, typically with a lag of around three-fourths of a year, by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum. This does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions. Evidence is presented, however, that even over the period 1948-72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious, supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the U.S. recessions prior to 1972. By extension, energy price increases may account for much of post-OPEC macroeconomic performance.