Extending energy system modelling to include extreme weather risks and application to hurricane events in Puerto Rico
Extending energy system modelling to include extreme weather risks and application to hurricane events in Puerto Rico
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DOI：
10.1038/s41560-020-00758-6
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发表时间：
2021-01-11
期刊：
影响因子：
56.7
通讯作者：
Clarens, Andres F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bennett, Jeffrey A.;Trevisan, Claire N.;Clarens, Andres F.
能源系统优化模型通常包含气候变化的影响，以检查不同的能源未来，并得出为政策提供信息的见解。然而，事实证明，气候变化导致的极端天气事件风险增加更难以建模。在这里，我们提出了一个能源系统优化模型，该模型通过将风暴概率与基础设施脆弱性曲线相结合，将飓风风险纳入其中，并在波多黎各的背景下展示了其效用，波多黎各是美国的一个岛屿领土，其能源系统在2017年受到飓风玛丽亚的严重破坏。该模型评估了改变电网结构、燃料组合和电网加固措施的潜力，同时考虑了飓风影响以及气候减缓政策。当飓风趋势包括在内时，2040年的电力成本预测将根据历史飓风频率增加32%，飓风频率增加82%。向可再生能源和天然气的过渡减少了成本和排放，而不依赖于气候减缓政策。
Energy system optimization models often incorporate climate change impacts to examine different energy futures and draw insights that inform policy. However, increased risk of extreme weather events from climate change has proven more difficult to model. Here, we present an energy system optimization model that incorporates hurricane risks by combining storm probabilities with infrastructure fragility curves, and demonstrate its utility in the context of Puerto Rico, an island territory of the United States that had its energy system severely damaged by Hurricane Maria in 2017. The model assesses the potential to change grid architecture, fuel mix and grid hardening measures considering hurricane impacts as well as climate mitigation policies. When hurricane trends are included, 2040 electricity cost projections increase by 32% based on historical hurricane frequencies and by 82% for increased hurricane frequencies. Transitioning to renewables and natural gas reduces costs and emissions independent of climate mitigation policies.