A Dynamic Model of Crowdfunding
A Dynamic Model of Crowdfunding
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2737748
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发表时间：
2016-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Alaei;Azarakhsh Malekian;Mohamed Mostagir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Alaei;Azarakhsh Malekian;Mohamed Mostagir
众筹正在迅速成为传统新产品融资方式的替代品。在众筹活动中，卖方通常以预购未实现产品的形式向人群征集资金捐助，并承诺如果承诺的总金额超过一定的门槛，则生产该产品。我们提供了一种众筹模式，消费者按顺序到达，并决定是否承诺。承诺并非没有成本，因此，如果消费者认为活动不会成功，他们宁愿不承诺。这可能会导致连锁反应，即使有足够的消费者想要产品，但活动也无法筹集到所需的金额。本文引入了一种新的随机过程-期望随机游动来分析这一问题。分析有助于解释为什么有些活动失败，有些没有，并提供指导原则，卖家应该如何设计他们的活动，以最大限度地提高他们的成功机会。更广泛地说，预期随机游走也可以应用于智能体顺序做出决策的环境中，这些决策不仅受到其他人过去行为的影响，而且还受到它们如何影响未来行为者的决策的影响。
Crowdfunding is quickly emerging as an alternative to traditional methods of funding new products. In a crowdfunding campaign, a seller solicits financial contributions from a crowd, usually in the form of pre-buying an unrealized product, and commits to producing the product if the total amount pledged is above a certain threshold. We provide a model of crowdfunding in which consumers arrive sequentially and make decisions about whether to pledge or not. Pledging is not costless, and hence consumers would prefer not to pledge if they think the campaign will not succeed. This can lead to cascades where a campaign fails to raise the required amount even though there are enough consumers who want the product. The paper introduces a novel stochastic process --- anticipating random walks --- to analyze this problem. The analysis helps explain why some campaigns fail and some do not, and provides guidelines about how sellers should design their campaigns in order to maximize their chances of success. More broadly, Anticipating Random Walks can also find application in settings where agents make decisions sequentially and these decisions are not just affected by past actions of others, but also by how they will impact the decisions of future actors as well.