Mortality and greenhouse gas impacts of biomass and petroleum energy futures in Africa
Mortality and greenhouse gas impacts of biomass and petroleum energy futures in Africa
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1106881
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发表时间：
2005-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Kammen, DM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bailis, R;Ezzati, M;Kammen, DM
我们分析了非洲家庭能源使用产生的死亡率影响和温室气体（GHG）排放。在一切照旧的情况下，到2030年，家庭室内空气污染将导致约980万人过早死亡。逐步和迅速过渡到木炭将分别推迟100万和280万人死亡;类似地过渡到石油燃料将推迟130万和370万人死亡。到2050年，“一切照旧”状态下的累计温室气体排放量将达到67亿吨，占非洲总排放量的5.6%。大规模转向使用化石燃料将使温室气体排放量减少1%至10%。使用当前做法的木炭密集型未来情景将使排放量增加140%至190%;使用目前可用的可持续生产技术，这一增幅可降至5%至36%，或者通过技术创新投资，可能会减少更多。
We analyzed the mortality impacts and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by household energy use in Africa. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, household indoor air pollution will cause an estimated 9.8 million premature deaths by the year 2030. Gradual and rapid transitions to charcoal would delay 1.0 million and 2.8 million deaths, respectively; similar transitions to petroleum fuels would delay 1.3 million and 3.7 million deaths. Cumulative BAU GHG emissions will be 6.7 billion tons of carbon by 2050, which is 5.6% of Africa's total emissions. Large shifts to the use of fossil fuels would reduce GHG emissions by 1 to 10%. Charcoal-intensive future scenarios using current practices increase emissions by 140 to 190%; the increase can be reduced to 5 to 36% using currently available technologies for sustainable production or potentially reduced even more with investment in technological innovation.