Forecasting residential electricity demand in provincial China
Forecasting residential electricity demand in provincial China
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DOI：
10.1007/s11356-016-8275-8
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kan Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hua Liao;Yanan Liu;Yixuan Gao;Yu Hao;Xiaowei Ma;Kan Wang
In China, more than 80% electricity comes from coal which dominates the CO2 emissions. Residential electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in electricity infrastructure planning and energy policy designing, but it is challenging to make an accurate forecast for developing countries. This paper forecasts the provincial residential electricity consumption of China in the 13th Five-Year-Plan (2016-2020) period using panel data. To overcome the limitations of widely used predication models with unreliably prior knowledge on function forms, a robust piecewise linear model in reduced form is utilized to capture the non-deterministic relationship between income and residential electricity consumption. The forecast results suggest that the growth rates of developed provinces will slow down, while the less developed will be still in fast growing. The national residential electricity demand will increase at 6.6% annually during 2016-2020, and populous provinces such as Guangdong will be the main contributors to the increments.
