Tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Patterns Modulate Mississippi Basin Hydroclimate Extremes Over the Last Millennium
Tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Patterns Modulate Mississippi Basin Hydroclimate Extremes Over the Last Millennium
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DOI：
10.1029/2022gl100715
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发表时间：
2022-12
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Xinyue Luo;S. Dee;Trinity Lavenhouse;S. Muñoz;N. Steiger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xinyue Luo;S. Dee;Trinity Lavenhouse;S. Muñoz;N. Steiger
密西西比河流域洪水对美国中部造成巨大的社会经济影响。提高洪水可预测性取决于我们对密西西比河流域水文气候动态控制的理解。然而，较短的仪器记录使得很难限制洪水与气候变化之间的联系。在这里，我们使用跨越上个千年的古水动力学数据同化产品来研究热带太平洋和北大西洋海面温度（SST）变化对密西西比河及其主要支流水文极端事件的影响。极端潮湿现象与热带太平洋上强烈的厄尔尼诺现象有关，但特定的海温模式很重要：中太平洋（东太平洋）厄尔尼诺事件期间会出现干燥（潮湿）的情况。北大西洋海温的影响尚不清楚，但凉爽的海温会导致俄亥俄盆地极端潮湿。这些结果与世界第四大河流域的季节到年际洪水灾害预测相关。
Mississippi River basin floods impart large socioeconomic impacts over the central United States. Improving flood predictability depends on our understanding of the dynamical controls on Mississippi basin hydroclimate. However, short instrumental records make it difficult to constrain the connections between flooding and climate variability. Here, we use the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product, spanning the Last Millennium, to investigate the impacts of tropical Pacific and North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability on hydrological extremes across the Mississippi River and its major tributaries. Wet extremes are associated with strong El Niño‐like warming over the tropical Pacific, but specific SST patterns matter: dry (wet) conditions occur during Central Pacific (Eastern Pacific) El Niño events. The influence of North Atlantic SSTs is less clear, but cool SSTs contribute to Ohio basin wet extremes. These results are relevant for seasonal‐to‐interannual flood hazard prediction on the fourth largest river basin in the world.