Migratory connectivity magnifies the consequences of habitat loss from sea-level rise for shorebird populations
Migratory connectivity magnifies the consequences of habitat loss from sea-level rise for shorebird populations
复制标题
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2013.0325
复制
发表时间：
2013-06-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Fuller, Richard A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iwamura, Takuya;Possingham, Hugh P.;Fuller, Richard A.
海平面上升将极大地改变沿岸的生态系统，导致沿海物种的栖息地改变和丧失。栖息地丧失被广泛用作灭绝风险的衡量标准，但由于许多沿海物种是迁徙性的，栖息地丧失的影响不仅取决于其程度，还取决于其发生的地点。在这里，我们开发了一种新的图论方法来衡量脆弱性的迁徙网络的栖息地损失的影响，从SLR的基础上通过网络的人口流量。我们发现，人口流量的减少远远超过了10个长途迁徙滨鸟使用东亚-澳大拉西亚飞行路线的栖息地丧失的比例。我们估计，SLR将淹没23-40%的潮间带栖息地面积沿着他们的迁移路线，但导致人口流量减少高达72%的类群。这种放大效应是特别强大的类群，其迁移路线包含的大部分人口旅行通过的地点。我们开发的瓶颈指数，一个新的网络度量，正相关的栖息地丧失对整体人口流量的预测影响。我们的研究结果表明，迁徙物种面临的风险比以前认识到的更大。
Sea-level rise (SLR) will greatly alter littoral ecosystems, causing habitat change and loss for coastal species. Habitat loss is widely used as a measurement of the risk of extinction, but because many coastal species are migratory, the impact of habitat loss will depend not only on its extent, but also on where it occurs. Here, we develop a novel graph-theoretic approach to measure the vulnerability of a migratory network to the impact of habitat loss from SLR based on population flow through the network. We show that reductions in population flow far exceed the proportion of habitat lost for 10 long-distance migrant shorebirds using the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. We estimate that SLR will inundate 23-40% of intertidal habitat area along their migration routes, but cause a reduction in population flow of up to 72 per cent across the taxa. This magnifying effect was particularly strong for taxa whose migration routes contain bottlenecks-sites through which a large fraction of the population travels. We develop the bottleneck index, a new network metric that positively correlates with the predicted impacts of habitat loss on overall population flow. Our results indicate that migratory species are at greater risk than previously realized.