Hard hit by El nino : experiences, responses and options for Malawi
Hard hit by El nino : experiences, responses and options for Malawi
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厄尔尼诺现象的重创：马拉维的经验、应对和选择
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Valens Mwumvaneza
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Blessings Nyanjagha Botha;F. Nkoka;Valens Mwumvaneza
在马拉维，极端天气事件的影响在很大程度上助长了一再发生的粮食不安全危机。极端天气事件使该国的重点从提高农业生产力和复原力转向确保生存，大部分资源用于人道主义援助。该国高度暴露于造成广泛冲击的多种灾害。近年来，该国面临着连续和复杂的气候冲击：从2015年50年来最严重的洪水，到2016年35年来最强的厄尔尼诺事件。这促使该国宣布进入灾难状态，并使该国39%的人（670万人）在2016/17消费期间面临粮食不安全的风险。厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是马拉维气候变化的最重要驱动因素。尽管预计厄尔尼诺现象发生的频率会增加，但马拉维政府（GoM）的行动却不够充分，因为灾害管理在很大程度上是被动的，而不是主动的。农业部门占马拉维国内生产总值（GDP）的30%，受到极端天气事件的严重影响。由于过分依赖以易受气候冲击的玉米为主的单季间歇性农业生产，这种情况更加严重。农业部门在灾害发生时遭受巨大损失，约占总损失的89%。由于大多数农作物减产，平均价格普遍上涨，助长了通货膨胀，降低了农业增长，最终对整个经济产生了不利影响。马拉维政府的应对措施是制定各种政策并协调机构或结构，以应对极端天气事件，包括增加其应对后果的责任，例如增加对玉米购买的支持。然而，其政策支离破碎，没有足够的资源将其转化为行动，而能力差距进一步削弱了增加的协调需求。有鉴于此，当灾害再次发生时，这些努力并没有转化为可持续的成果，造成了粮食不安全和脆弱性的恶性循环。开展这项分析工作是为了协助蒙古国政府加强努力，有效应对极端天气相关事件，特别是厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象。具体而言，该研究旨在对该国如何应对最近的极端天气事件进行严格审查，为未来的应对规划吸取教训，并确定差距和选项，以加强对厄尔尼诺，拉尼娜和类似天气事件的准备和应对。该研究结合了2017年7月至9月收集的主要和次要数据。通过重点小组讨论和在马拉维15个易受灾害地区采访主要知情人收集了原始数据。次要数据包括对各种政策、研究报告和其他文件的审查。
In Malawi, the impact of extreme weather events has significantly contributed to the recurrent crises of food insecurity. The extreme weather events have shifted the country’s focus from improving agricultural productivity and resilience to ensuring survival, with most resources devoted toward humanitarian assistance. The country is highly exposed to multiple hazards that cause widespread shocks. In recent years, the country faced successive and compounding climatic shocks: from the worst flood in 50 years in 2015, to the strongest El Nino event in 35 years in 2016. This prompted declaration of a state of disaster and left 39 percent of the country (6.7 million people) at risk of food insecurity during the 2016/17 consumption period. The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of climatic variability in Malawi. Even though El Nino occurrences are predicted to increase in frequency, the Government of Malawi’s (GoM) actions are inadequate, as disaster management is largely reactive than proactive.The agriculture sector, which contributes 30 percent to Malawi’s gross domestic product (GDP), has been severely affected by the extreme weather events. This is amplified by the overreliance on single-season rainfed agricultural production, dominated by maize-based systems that are vulnerable to climatic shocks. The agriculture sector incurs huge losses when disaster strikes, amounting to approximately 89 percent of the total losses. In response to reduced production of most crops, average prices have generally increased, fueling inflation and reduced agricultural growth, and ultimately adversely impacting the economy at large. The Government of Malawi (GoM) has responded by putting in place various policies and coordinating institutions or structures to address extreme weather events, including increasing its responsibility for responding to the aftermath e.g. increasing support to maize purchases. However, its policies are fragmented, with inadequate resources to translate them into action, while capacity gaps further cripple increased coordination requirements. In view of this, efforts have not translated into sustained results when disasters recur, creating a vicious cycle of food insecurity and vulnerability. This analytical work was undertaken to assist the GoM to strengthen its efforts toward effectively responding to extreme weather-related events, especially El Nino and La Nina phenomena. Specifically, the study aims to provide a critical review of how the country has responded to recent extreme weather events, draw lessons for future response planning, and identify gaps and options to strengthen preparedness and response to El Nino, La Nina, and similar weather events. The study used a combination of primary and secondary data collected from July to September 2017. Primary data were collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews in Malawi’s 15 disaster-prone districts. Secondary data included a review of various policies, research reports, and other documents.