Will It Spread or Not? The Effects of Social Influences and Network Topology on Innovation Diffusion
Will It Spread or Not? The Effects of Social Influences and Network Topology on Innovation Diffusion
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1540-5885.2010.00714.x
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发表时间：
2010-03
影响因子：
10.5
通讯作者：
S. Delre;W. Jager;Tammo H. A. Bijmolt;M. Janssen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Delre;W. Jager;Tammo H. A. Bijmolt;M. Janssen
创新扩散理论表明，消费者在他们拥有的联系数量以及社会影响决定他们选择采用的程度和方向方面存在差异。为了检验这些因素对创新扩散的影响，特别是成功和失败的发生，引入了一个新的基于主体的创新扩散模型。该模型不同于现有的渗流模型，使用了更现实的代理(包括个人偏好和社会影响)和更现实的网络(无规模且有成本约束)。此外，它还允许消费者对他们拥有的链接进行加权，并允许链接具有方向性。这样，这种基于代理的模型测试了VIP的效果，他们可以对许多消费者产生相对较大的影响。结果表明，社会影响力越大的市场对创新的最终成功越不确定，创新的成功越难实现。由于消费者在扩散开始时相互影响采用或不采用，新产品更难达到产品腾飞所需的临界质量。此外，模拟实验的结果表明，在什么条件下，高度连接的主体(VIP)决定了创新的最终扩散。尽管枢纽几乎存在于任何消费者网络中，但它们在不同市场中的角色和影响可能会非常不同。仿真结果表明，当网络中心的最大连接数受到限制时，创新扩散受到严重阻碍，并且网络的不确定性大大增加。然而，人们发现VIP对扩散曲线的影响往往被高估了。事实上，当VIP对消费者决策的影响比普通朋友的影响更大时，创新的扩散并没有实质性的促进。可以得出的结论是，贵宾的重要性在于他们向许多消费者提供信息的能力，而不是更强的说服力。
Innovation diffusion theory suggests that consumers differ concerning the number of contacts they have and the degree and the direction to which social influences determine their choice to adopt. To test the impacts of these factors on innovation diffusion, in particular the occurrence of hits and flops, a new agent-based model for innovation diffusion is introduced. This model departs from existing percolation models by using more realistic agents (both individual preferences and social influence) and more realistic networks (scale free with cost constraints). Furthermore, it allows consumers to weight the links they have, and it allows links to be directional. In this way this agent-based model tests the effect of VIPs who can have a relatively large impact on many consumers. Results indicate that markets with high social influence are more uncertain concerning the final success of the innovation and that it is more difficult for the innovation to take off. As consumers affect each other to adopt or not at the beginning of the diffusion, the new product has more difficulties to reach the critical mass that is necessary for the product to take off. In addition, results of the simulation experiments show under which conditions highly connected agents (VIPs) determine the final diffusion of the innovation. Although hubs are present in almost any network of consumers, their roles and their effects in different markets can be very different. Using a scale-free network with a cut-off parameter for the maximum number of connections a hub can have, the simulation results show that when hubs have limits to the maximum number of connections the innovation diffusion is severely hampered, and it becomes much more uncertain. However, it is found that the effect of VIPs on the diffusion curve is often overestimated. In fact when the influence of VIPs on the decision making of the consumers is strengthened compared with the influence of normal friends, the diffusion of the innovation is not substantially facilitated. It can be concluded that the importance of VIPs resides in their capacity to inform many consumers and not in a stronger persuasive power.