Statistical Modeling of Bilge Water Discharge from Ships During Normal Operation
Statistical Modeling of Bilge Water Discharge from Ships During Normal Operation
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DOI：
10.3390/jmse8050320
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Nishi, Yoshiki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Motoyoshi, Munekazu;Nishi, Yoshiki
本研究通过建立统计模型，估算了正常运行期间船舶的舱底水溢出量，并确定了排放的影响因素。为了建立统计模型，我们收集了尽可能多的关于船舶舱底水排放量的信息，然后利用收集到的信息根据贝叶斯统计方法得出排放量的概率分布，并应用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法确定了模型中包含的参数。对这些参数的分析表明，综合舱底处理系统(IBTS)是减少排污量的主要原因，集装箱型船舶的排污量特别大。
This study estimated the amount of bilge water spilled from ships during normal operation and identified the contributing factors of the discharge by building a statistical model. To build the statistical model, we collected as much information as possible about the amount of bilge water in ships, then used the collected information to formulate a probability distribution of the discharge amount according to Bayesian statistics, and determined the parameters included in the model by applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The analysis of those parameters shows that the integrated bilge treatment system (IBTS) primarily contributes to reductions in the discharge amount, and that the container-type ship is involved with especially large discharge amounts.