A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis
A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis
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普雷维什-辛格假说的一般检验
DOI：
10.1111/1467-9361.00050
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发表时间：
1999
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Matthias Lutz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Matthias Lutz
本文共同研究了初级商品相对价格长期下降的Prebisch-Singer假说及其检验框架。一般模型估计嵌套在过去的文献中使用的单变量和双变量时间序列模型。结果表明，在大多数以前的研究中估计的计量经济学模型强烈支持Prebisch-Singer假说，并拒绝最近的研究结果-贸易条件的特点是罕见的负面冲击-有利于长期的负面趋势。版权所有1999年由布莱克韦尔出版有限公司
This paper examines jointly the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a long-term decline in the relative price of primary commodities and the appropriate framework in which it is tested. A general model is estimated which nests the univariate and bivariate time-series models used in the past literature. The results suggest that the econometric models estimated in the majority of previous studies strongly support the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis and reject recent findings--that the terms of trade are characterized by infrequent negative shocks--in favor of a long-term negative trend. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd