Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003
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发表时间：
2015-10-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Asseng, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ewert, F.;Rotter, R. P.;Asseng, S.
气候变化所造成的风险的复杂性以及作物生产可能的适应性要求采取综合评估和建模办法，将生物物理模型和经济模型联系起来。本文试图提供一个概述的作物模型，以评估气候变化对粮食生产的风险，在何种程度上作物模型符合IAM的要求。在模拟气候变量的影响方面取得了相当大的进展，作物模型最能满足综合农业评估的要求。部分满足了模拟常用评估变量的要求。然而，在模拟作物的数量、与模型参数和结构有关的不确定性传播、调整和缩放方面的进展不够先进，落后于综合农业评估的要求。这些限制被认为是巨大的，并在不同程度上适用于所有作物模型。克服这些限制需要共同努力，并考虑新的建模方法。(C)2014爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.