Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate
Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2021ef002326
复制
发表时间：
2021-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Horton, Benjamin P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Garner, Andra J.;Kopp, Robert E.;Horton, Benjamin P.
气候变化中的热带气旋（TC）路径特征仍然不确定。在这里，我们调查了从工业化前时代（850-1800 CE）到现代时代（1970-2005 CE）再到未来（2080- 2100 CE），在纽约市（NYC）250公里范围内行驶的> 35，000个合成TC的起源、轨迹和终止。在非常高的排放情景下（RCP 8.5），TC更有可能在靠近美国（美国）的地方形成。东南沿海（>15%的增长），终止于东北大西洋（>6%的增长），并沿着美国大西洋沿岸移动最慢（>15%的增长）从工业化前到未来。在我们的模拟场景下，TC更有可能在未来在美国马萨诸塞州波士顿（p = 0.01）和美国弗吉尼亚州诺福克（p = 0.05）的100公里范围内旅行，而不是在纽约市的100公里范围内旅行。我们确定减少的时间之间的成因和时间时，TC来到100公里的纽约市，波士顿，或诺福克，以及增加的持续时间TC的影响，从个人风暴在所有三个城市的未来。
Tropical cyclone (TC) track characteristics in a changing climate remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the genesis, tracks, and termination of >35,000 synthetic TCs traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre-industrial era (850-1800 CE) to the modern era (1970-2005 CE) to the future (2080-2100 CE). Under a very high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), TCs are more likely to form closer to the United States (U.S.) southeast coast (>15% increase), terminate in the northeastern Atlantic (>6% increase), and move most slowly along the U.S. Atlantic coast (>15% increase) from the pre-industrial to future. Under our modeled scenarios, TCs are more likely to travel within 100 km of Boston, MA, USA (p = 0.01) and Norfolk, VA, USA (p = 0.05) than within 100 km of NYC in the future. We identify reductions in the time between genesis and the time when TCs come within 100 km of NYC, Boston, or Norfolk, as well as increased duration of TC impacts from individual storms at all three cities in the future.