Significant and Inevitable End-of-Twenty-First-Century Advances in Surface Runoff Timing in California’s Sierra Nevada
Significant and Inevitable End-of-Twenty-First-Century Advances in Surface Runoff Timing in California’s Sierra Nevada
复制标题
二十一世纪末加利福尼亚州内华达山脉地表径流计时的重大且不可避免的进步
DOI：
10.1175/jhm-d-16-0257.1
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
N. Berg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Schwartz;A. Hall;F. Sun;D. Walton;N. Berg
利用混合动力-统计降尺度方法，对来自耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）第5阶段的所有可用全球气候模式（GCM）的加州的Sierra内华达州的21-世纪末3 km分辨率径流时序变化进行了预测。所有四个有代表性的浓度路径（RCP）通过政府间气候变化专门委员会的第五次评估报告进行审查。这些多模式，多情景预测允许整体平均径流时间变化的量化和相关的一系列可能的结果，由于两个模型间的变异性和选择的强迫情景。在“一切照旧”强迫情景（RCP 8.5）下，变暖导致2091-2100年的融雪驱动地表径流比1991-2000年早得多，35个模式集合平均预测的提前时间高达80天。对于现实的“缓解”情景（RCP 4.5），总体平均变化较小，但仍然很大（最多30天）。为了艾尔...
AbstractUsing hybrid dynamical–statistical downscaling, 3-km-resolution end-of-twenty-first-century runoff timing changes over California’s Sierra Nevada for all available global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are projected. All four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report are examined. These multimodel, multiscenario projections allow for quantification of ensemble-mean runoff timing changes and an associated range of possible outcomes due to both intermodel variability and choice of forcing scenario. Under a “business as usual” forcing scenario (RCP8.5), warming leads to a shift toward much earlier snowmelt-driven surface runoff in 2091–2100 compared to 1991–2000, with advances of as much as 80 days projected in the 35-model ensemble mean. For a realistic “mitigation” scenario (RCP4.5), the ensemble-mean change is smaller but still large (up to 30 days). For al...