The use of seasonal climate forecasting in policymaking: Lessons from Northeast Brazil
The use of seasonal climate forecasting in policymaking: Lessons from Northeast Brazil
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DOI：
10.1023/a:1020785826029
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发表时间：
2002-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Tucker, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lemos, MC;Finan, TJ;Tucker, J
本文探讨了季节性气候预测在公共和私人努力，以减轻干旱的影响，在塞阿拉，巴西东北部的使用。在这方面，预测的对象是小规模的、有经验的农学家以及农业、水资源管理和紧急干旱救济领域的州和地方一级决策者。在评估塞阿拉应用预测的可能性和制约因素时，本分析考虑到三类变量：（a）预测的特点;（B）决策系统;（c）体制环境。我们的结论是，一方面，在塞阿拉的情况下，几个因素限制了季节性气候预测的有效性。首先，目前的预测技能水平不足以满足政策制定和农民决策的需要。第二，预测信息的应用受到歪曲、误解和政治操纵。第三，把预测作为一种产品来关注，直到最近才忽视了考虑最终用户的需求和决策行为。另一方面，气候预测有可能为州和地方一级的官僚机构提供一个戏剧性的机会，走上积极主动的干旱规划之路。
This article examines the use of seasonal climate forecasting in public and private efforts to mitigate the impacts of drought in Ceara, Northeast Brazil. Here, forecasts have been directed towards small scale, rainfed agriculturalists as well as state and local level policymakers in the areas of agriculture, water management, and emergency drought relief. In assessing possibilities and constraints of forecast application in Ceara, the present analysis takes into account three types of variables: (a) characteristics of the forecasts; (b) policymaking systems; and (c) institutional environments. We conclude that, on the one hand, several factors in the Ceara case have limited the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecast use. First, the current level of skill of the forecasts is inadequate for the needs of policy development and farmer decisionmaking. Second, forecast information application has been subject to distortion, misinterpretation and political manipulation. Third, focus on the forecast as a product until recently neglected to take into account end users' needs and decisionmaking behavior. On the other hand, climate forecasting has the potential to offer a dramatic opportunity for state and local level bureaucracies to embark on a path of proactive drought planning.