Voter Registration Databases and MRP: Toward the Use of Large-Scale Databases in Public Opinion Research
Voter Registration Databases and MRP: Toward the Use of Large-Scale Databases in Public Opinion Research
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DOI：
10.1017/pan.2020.3
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Gelman, Andrew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ghitza, Yair;Gelman, Andrew
电话回复率的下降迫使调查方法发生了几次转变，包括手机补充、非概率抽样以及越来越依赖基于模型的推断。与此同时，统计方法的进步和大量新数据来源表明，新方法可以解决其中一些问题。我们专注于一种类型的数据源选民登记数据库，并显示他们如何可以提高政治调查的推论。这些数据库使调查方法学家能够大规模地利用政治变量，如政党登记和过去的投票行为，而不会在调查答复之间出现多报偏见或内隐现象。我们开发了一个一般的过程，以利用这些数据，这是说明通过一个例子，我们使用多层次回归和poststratification产生投票选择估计为2012年总统选举，预计这些估计1.95亿登记选民在选举后的背景下。我们的推论是稳定和合理的，小的地理区域内的人口分组，甚至到县或国会选区一级。出口民调的问题越来越多，而且并非在所有地区都有。我们讨论的问题，局限性和开放的研究领域。
Declining telephone response rates have forced several transformations in survey methodology, including cell phone supplements, nonprobability sampling, and increased reliance on model-based inferences. At the same time, advances in statistical methods and vast amounts of new data sources suggest that new methods can combat some of these problems. We focus on one type of data source-voter registration databases-and show how they can improve inferences from political surveys. These databases allow survey methodologists to leverage political variables, such as party registration and past voting behavior, at a large scale and free of overreporting bias or endogeneity between survey responses. We develop a general process to take advantage of this data, which is illustrated through an example where we use multilevel regression and poststratification to produce vote choice estimates for the 2012 presidential election, projecting those estimates to 195 million registered voters in a postelection context. Our inferences are stable and reasonable down to demographic subgroups within small geographies and even down to the county or congressional district level. They can be used to supplement exit polls, which have become increasingly problematic and are not available in all geographies. We discuss problems, limitations, and open areas of research.