Widespread Mismatch Between Phenology and Climate in Human‐Dominated Landscapes
Widespread Mismatch Between Phenology and Climate in Human‐Dominated Landscapes
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DOI：
10.1029/2021av000431
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Yiluan Song;C. J. Zajic;T. Hwang;C. Hakkenberg;K. Zhu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yiluan Song;C. J. Zajic;T. Hwang;C. Hakkenberg;K. Zhu
植物追踪气候变化的部分方式是改变它们的物候期，即生物事件重复发生的时间。目前尚不清楚这些观测到的物候变化是否足以跟上快速的气候变化。长期以来，人们一直假设物候不匹配或关键物候事件发生时间之间的非同步化，但很少大规模量化。人类活动如何导致这种新出现的物候不匹配，这一点甚至更不清楚。在这项研究中，我们使用遥感观测系统地评估植物物候变化如何在大陆尺度上与变暖趋势保持同步。特别是，我们开发了一个度量的空间不匹配，连接经验的时空数据，生态理论使用的“变化速度”的方法。在北方中高纬度地区（30-70°N之间），在过去的三十年（1981-2014）中，我们发现了陆地表面物候和气候之间广泛不匹配的证据，其中物候等值线落后于气候等值线或向相反的方向移动。这些不匹配在人类主导的景观中更为明显，这表明人类活动与气候变化的物候动态的非线性化之间存在关系。结果证实了独立的地面观测，表明春季物候的不匹配增加与人口密度的几种植物。这项研究揭示了一种可能性，即即使是植被活动中的一些最重要的反应也无法与近期变暖的速度相匹配。这种气候-物候不匹配的系统分析对气候变化下人类主导景观中植被的可持续管理具有重要意义。
Plants track changing climate partly by shifting their phenology, the timing of recurring biological events. It is unknown whether these observed phenological shifts are sufficient to keep pace with rapid climate changes. Phenological mismatch, or the desynchronization between the timing of critical phenological events, has long been hypothesized but rarely quantified on a large scale. It is even less clear how human activities have contributed to this emergent phenological mismatch. In this study, we used remote sensing observations to systematically evaluate how plant phenological shifts have kept pace with warming trends at the continental scale. In particular, we developed a metric of spatial mismatch that connects empirical spatiotemporal data to ecological theory using the “velocity of change” approach. In northern mid‐to high‐latitude regions (between 30–70°N) over the last three decades (1981–2014), we found evidence of a widespread mismatch between land surface phenology and climate where isolines of phenology lag behind or move in the opposite direction to the isolines of climate. These mismatches were more pronounced in human‐dominated landscapes, suggesting a relationship between human activities and the desynchronization of phenology dynamics with climate variations. Results were corroborated with independent ground observations that indicate the mismatch of spring phenology increases with human population density for several plant species. This study reveals the possibility that not even some of the foremost responses in vegetation activity match the pace of recent warming. This systematic analysis of climate‐phenology mismatch has important implications for the sustainable management of vegetation in human‐dominated landscapes under climate change.