Net benefits to US soy and maize yields from intensifying hourly rainfall
Net benefits to US soy and maize yields from intensifying hourly rainfall
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-020-0830-0
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发表时间：
2020-08-10
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Horton, Radley
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lesk, Corey;Coffel, Ethan;Horton, Radley
许多种类的短期极端天气对全球农作物生产、粮食安全和农民生计构成威胁（1-4）。每小时暴露于极端高温已被确定为对作物产量有害（1，5）;然而，每小时降雨强度和极端天气对产量的影响仍然未知（4，6，7）。在这里，我们表明，虽然美国的玉米和大豆产量受到最罕见的每小时极端降雨（>= 50 mm hr（-1））的严重破坏，但它们受益于高达20 mm hr（-1）的强降雨，大约是一年中平均最大的暴雨。我们还发现，产量下降的毛毛雨（0.1-1毫米小时（-1）），揭示了一个复杂的模式，产量敏感性的范围内每小时的强度。我们预计，由于气候变暖（8，9）下预计的未来降雨强度，作物产量将平均受益约1-3%，略微抵消了过热导致的较大预期产量下降，更多强降雨小时的好处超过了额外极端天气造成的损失。我们的研究结果挑战了高强度降雨事件频率增加对作物产量构成明确风险的观点（2，7，10），并提供了可能指导适应性作物管理和改进作物模型的见解。
Many varieties of short-duration extreme weather pose a threat to global crop production, food security and farmer livelihoods(1-4). Hourly exposure to extreme heat has been identified as detrimental to crop yields(1,5); however, the influence of hourly rainfall intensity and extremes on yields remains unknown(4,6,7). Here, we show that while maize and soy yields in the United States are severely damaged by the rarest hourly rainfall extremes (>= 50 mm hr(-1)), they benefit from heavy rainfall up to 20 mm hr(-1), roughly the heaviest downpour of the year on average. We also find that yields decrease in response to drizzle (0.1-1 mm hr(-1)), revealing a complex pattern of yield sensitivity across the range of hourly intensities. We project that crop yields will benefit by similar to 1-3% on average due to projected future rainfall intensification under climate warming(8,9), slightly offsetting the larger expected yield declines from excess heat, with the benefits of more heavy rainfall hours outweighing the damages due to additional extremes. Our results challenge the view that an increasing frequency of high-intensity rainfall events poses an unequivocal risk to crop yields(2,7,10)and provide insights that may guide adaptive crop management and improve crop models.