A Nonhomogeneous Agent-Based Simulation Approach to Modeling the Spread of Disease in a Pandemic Outbreak
A Nonhomogeneous Agent-Based Simulation Approach to Modeling the Spread of Disease in a Pandemic Outbreak
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DOI：
10.1287/inte.1100.0550
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发表时间：
2011-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Schwartz, Brian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Aleman, Dionne M.;Wibisono, Theodorus G.;Schwartz, Brian
为了有效地应对大流行性疾病的爆发，了解疾病将如何传播是至关重要的。2002-2003年全球爆发的严重急性呼吸系统综合症（萨斯）突出表明需要这些数据。在防备和应对从大流行性流感到禽流感等所有疾病暴发方面，这种需要也是显而易见的。许多以前的疾病研究对传播和感染率做出了简单的假设，并假设人口中的每个成员都是相同的或同质的。我们提出了一个基于主体的模拟模型，该模型将每个个体视为独特的，具有与人口统计信息和行为相关的非同质传播和感染率。该模型的结果输出到地理信息系统软件，以提供估计疾病传播区域的地图，该地图可用作决策工具，以确定适当的缓解战略。安大略省健康保护和促进局（OAHPP）将该模型用于加拿大安大略省大多伦多地区的大流行病规划。
To effectively prepare for a pandemic disease outbreak, knowledge of how the disease will spread is paramount. The global outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002-2003 highlighted the need for such data. This need is also apparent in preparing for and responding to all disease outbreaks, from pandemic influenza to avian flu. Many previous studies of disease make simplistic assumptions about transmission and infection rates and assume that each member of the population is identical or homogeneous. We propose an agent-based simulation model that treats each individual as unique, with nonhomogeneous transmission and infection rates correlated to demographic information and behavior. The results of the model are output to geographic information system software to provide a map of the estimated disease spread area, which can be used as a policy-making tool for determining a suitable mitigation strategy. The Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion (OAHPP) uses the model for pandemic planning for the Greater Toronto area in Ontario, Canada.