Deciding kidney-offer admissibility dependent on patients' lifetime failure rate
Deciding kidney-offer admissibility dependent on patients' lifetime failure rate
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根据患者终生失败率来决定肾脏捐献的可接受性
DOI：
10.1016/j.ejor.2015.12.009
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
I. David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael Bendersky;I. David
我们使用充分信息最佳停药的发展来决定肾脏供应的可接受性，这取决于患者的治疗年龄，他/她的估计终身概率概况和他/她在等待名单上的前景。我们允许一个广泛的寿命分布-伽马-从而使灵活的透析患者生存建模。我们在电子表格应用程序中完全自动化了适当的递归解决方案。它产生的optimalcritical时间为接受提供不同的质量，并随之而来的预期价值去作为一个函数的时间。该模型可以服务于捐赠计划的组织者用于规划目的，以及特定的外科医生在适当的时间做出关键决定。它可以进一步服务于潜在的个体接受者，实践当今的患者选择。数值结果和讨论包括在内。
We use developments in full-informationoptimal stoppingto decide kidney-offer admissibility depending on the patient’s age in treatment, on his/her estimated lifetime probabilistic profile and his/her prospects on the waiting list. We allow for a broad family of lifetime distributions – the Gamma – thus enabling flexible modeling of patients survival under dialysis. We fully automate an appropriate recursive solution in a spreadsheet application. It yields the optimalcritical timesfor acceptance of offers of different qualities, and the ensuing expected value-to-go as a function of time. The model may serve both the organizer of a donation program for planning purposes, and the particular surgeon in making the critical decision at the proper time. It may further serve the potential individual recipient, practicing present-daypatient-choice. Numerical results and their discussion are included.