Comparing palaeolimnological and instrumental evidence of climate change for remote mountain lakes over the last 200 years
Comparing palaeolimnological and instrumental evidence of climate change for remote mountain lakes over the last 200 years
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DOI：
10.1023/a:1020384204940
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发表时间：
2002-06-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Lami, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Battarbee, RW;Grytnes, JA;Lami, A
本文比较了过去200年气候变化的古湖沼学证据与欧洲七个偏远山区湖泊同期的仪器气候数据。这些地点是Ovre Neadalsvatn（挪威）、Saanajarvi（芬兰）、Gossenkollesee（奥地利）、Hagelseewli（瑞士）、热泽罗v Ledvici（斯洛文尼亚）、Estany Redo（西班牙，比利牛斯山脉）和Nizne Terianske Pleso（斯洛伐克）。我们使用多元回归分析，以转移均匀的低地空气温度记录到每个网站，这些重建进行了验证，使用现场自动气象站的数据。这些数据表明，在过去的200年里，每个地点的年平均温度变化在1到2摄氏度之间，这是整个全新世发现的典型高频变化，因此，适合测试所使用的各种替代方法的灵敏度。从每个网站的沉积物芯进行放射性测年使用Pb-210，Cs-137和Am-241和分析烧失量，C，N，S，色素，硅藻，金藻，枝角类和摇蚊。代理数据和仪器数据之间的比较是基于线性回归分析，代理数据作为响应变量，仪器数据（使用LOESS回归平滑后）作为预测变量。结果表明，很少有明确或一致的模式，一般较低或非常低的r（2）值。最高值是在使用宽跨度平滑后比较数据时发现的，这表明一些代用数据捕捉到了气候变率，但只是在相对粗糙的时间分辨率上。所用方法性能不佳的可能原因包括测年不准确，特别是对于较早的时间段，某些地点的混杂强迫因素的影响。例如，在一个实施例中，空气污染、地震以及某些方法对低振幅气候强迫的不敏感性。然而，在一些地点的一些代用记录中有一些趋势与仪器气候记录有相对明确的对应关系。这些包括有机质和相关的变量（C和N）和浮游硅藻组合在大多数网站和金藻和摇蚊在少数网站。总体而言，对于全新世的长期研究，这些结果表明，需要谨慎的代理记录的解释，代理方法验证的重要性，继续需要使用加强多代理的方法，需要仔细的网站和方法的选择。
This paper compares the palaeolimnological evidence for climate change over the last 200 years with instrumental climate data for the same period at seven European remote mountain lakes. The sites are Ovre Neadalsvatn ( Norway), Saanajarvi ( Finland), Gossenkollesee ( Austria), Hagelseewli ( Switzerland), Jezero v Ledvici ( Slovenia), Estany Redo ( Spain, Pyrenees), and Nizne Terianske Pleso ( Slovakia). We used multiple regression analysis to transfer homogenised lowland air temperature records to each of the sites, and these reconstructions were validated using data from on-site automatic weather stations. These data showed that mean annual temperature has varied over the last 200 years at each site by between 1 and 2 degreesC, typical of the high frequency variability found throughout the Holocene, and appropriate, therefore, to test the sensitivity of the various proxy methods used. Sediment cores from each site were radiometrically dated using Pb-210, Cs-137 and Am-241 and analysed for loss-on-ignition, C, N, S, pigments, diatoms, chrysophytes, Cladocera and chironomids. Comparisons between the proxy data and the instrumental data were based on linear regression analysis with the proxy data treated as response variables and the instrumental data ( after smoothing using LOESS regressions) as predictor variables. The results showed few clear or consistent patterns with generally low or very low r(2) values. Highest values were found when the data were compared after smoothing using a broad span, indicating that some of the proxy data were capturing climate variability but only at a relatively coarse time resolution. Probable reasons for the weak performance of the methods used include inaccurate dating, especially for earlier time periods, the influence of confounding forcing factors at some sites e. g., air pollution, earthquakes, and the insensitivity of some methods to low amplitude climate forcing. Nevertheless, there were trends in some proxy records at a number of sites that had a relatively unambiguous correspondence with the instrumental climate records. These included organic matter and associated variables ( C and N) and planktonic diatom assemblages at the majority of sites and chrysophytes and chironomids at a few sites. Overall for longer term studies of the Holocene, these results indicate the need to be cautious in the interpretation of proxy records, the importance of proxy method validation, the continuing need to use reinforcing multi-proxy approaches, and the need for careful site and method selection.