Long-term crop productivity response and its interaction with cereal markets and energy prices
Long-term crop productivity response and its interaction with cereal markets and energy prices
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作物生产力的长期反应及其与谷物市场和能源价格的相互作用
DOI：
10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.12.001
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
6.5
通讯作者：
P. Westhoff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Thompson;J. Dewbre;Simone Pieralli;K. Schroeder;I. P. Domínguez;P. Westhoff
只要经济主体适应预期价格的永久性变化，农作物产量就是内生的。然而，文献并未提供收益率因持续价格变化而变化多少的明确值。为了填补这一空白，我们利用现有的科学发现和数据来估计产量弹性，从而进行农产品和粮食政策分析。我们使用具有短期和长期产量响应的世界市场模型，展示了持续的能源价格冲击对全球谷物供应和需求的影响。结果突显了数量和价格影响的显着差异，具体取决于收益率弹性。这些结果表明，在评估能源价格或生物燃料生产对粮食使用的影响时，或者更一般地说，在面临收入和人口增长、不断变化的饮食模式、气候变化影响或其他长期压力时对粮食安全的影响时，需要认识到产量反应。
Crop yields are endogenous as long as economic agents adjust to permanent changes in expected prices. The literature, however, does not offer a definitive value of how much yield would change in response to sustained price changes. To fill the gap, we use available scientific findings and data to estimate yield elasticities that enable agricultural commodity and food policy analysis. Using a world market model with short- to long-run yield response, we show the impacts of sustained energy price shocks on global cereal supply and demand. The results highlight substantial differences in quantity and price effects depending on the yield elasticities. These results demonstrate the need to recognize yield response when assessing impacts of energy prices or biofuel production on food uses or, more generally, on food security in the face of income and population growth, evolving dietary patterns, climate change implications, or other long-run pressures.