More Than One Replication Study Is Needed for Unambiguous Tests of Replication
More Than One Replication Study Is Needed for Unambiguous Tests of Replication
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DOI：
10.3102/1076998619852953
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发表时间：
2019-06
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
L. Hedges;J. Schauer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Hedges;J. Schauer
评估实验结果是否可以复制的问题在许多科学领域变得越来越重要。人们通常认为，评估复制是简单的：所有人需要做的就是重复研究，看看原始研究和复制研究的结果是否一致。这篇文章表明，两项研究是否获得相同的效果的统计检验小于任何一项研究首先检测效果的能力。因此，除非原始研究和复制研究具有异常高的功效（例如，把握度为98%），单次重复研究的灵敏度不足以提供明确的重复评价。
The problem of assessing whether experimental results can be replicated is becoming increasingly important in many areas of science. It is often assumed that assessing replication is straightforward: All one needs to do is repeat the study and see whether the results of the original and replication studies agree. This article shows that the statistical test for whether two studies obtain the same effect is smaller than the power of either study to detect an effect in the first place. Thus, unless the original study and the replication study have unusually high power (e.g., power of 98%), a single replication study will not have adequate sensitivity to provide an unambiguous evaluation of replication.